Wednesday night marked the one-year anniversary since former and potentially future President Donald Trump announced that he was once again running for president, after he had teased it for months. As Spencer aptly put it in his headline at the time, "Make America Great Again Again Again: Trump All-in on 2024." Given the lack of a red wave for the 2022 midterms that had just taken place, including with the losses of Trump-endorsed candidates, it was considered something of a bold move on the timing. But that's also Trump for you. A year later, he's not only led in the polls in the Republican presidential primary, but even against President Joe Biden, in the event we're headed for a rematch of 2020 in 2024.
The 2024 presidential election is still almost a year away, 355 days away to be exact. Trump and Biden both have to win their primaries, but they're in good positions to do so, even with increased concern about Biden's age and other electability factors. RealClearPolitics (RCP) currently has Trump with 58.6 percent in the Republican primary, for a spread of +43.8.
A Yahoo!/YouGov poll from earlier this week revealed that a majority of Democratic respondents, at 54 percent, want to see another Democratic challenger. And yet 51 percent of Democratic respondents still say they want Biden as opposed to "someone else." It's less than a majority for Lean Democrats and those who voted for Biden in 2020, at 46 percent and 47 percent respectively. A majority of respondents age 18-29, at 57 percent, want "someone else."
Biden already has primary challengers, in Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips. That doesn't mean they're performing too well in the poll. Given the choices of Biden, Williams, Phillips, "not sure," and "I would not vote," 64 percent of Democrats or Independents who lean Democrat still would choose Biden. Williamson and Phillips each get 4 percent among these respondents. Twenty-six percent say they're not sure.
Among Republicans and Independents who lean Republican, 56 percent say they want to see Trump run, compared to the 34 percent who want "someone else" and 10 percent who are unsure. Trump is also running against many more candidates, though. The poll also shows him as the preferred candidate, at 54 percent, when other candidates are listed. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis comes in second with 15 percent.
When it comes to the general election, the poll also shows Trump leading 44 percent to Biden's 42 percent among registered voters. He also has more support from his 2020 voters than Biden does from his 2020 voters, at 89 percent compared to Biden's 82 percent.
The results are brutal for Biden in other ways, though, and show a trend of concern about Biden's fitness and age. As we've covered in other VIP pieces, notable Democrats like David Axelrod are among those who have raised such concerns.
"2024 poll: Trump takes lead amid growing concerns about Biden's age and competence," read the Wednesday morning headline from Yahoo! News about the poll. As the write-up notes, the situation has actually become far worse for Biden as we get closer to Election Day:
The survey of 1,584 U.S. adults, which was conducted from Nov. 9 to 13, also shows that a clear majority of them now share concerns over Biden’s age and competence that were once largely limited to partisan opponents, suggesting an uphill battle ahead for the 80-year-old president as he seeks a second term.
The trend lines are stark. Today, a full 54% of Americans say that Biden, the oldest Oval Office occupant in U.S. history, no longer has “the competence to carry out the job of president,” up from 41% in June 2020 and 49% as recently as February of this year.
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To counter such fears, Biden’s supporters often note that his likely opponent, the 77-year-old Trump, is only three and a half years his junior, and that the Democrat’s busy schedule and substantive list of accomplishments contradict the Republican caricature of a hapless senior citizen.
The problem, however, is that the public isn’t buying their argument — at least not yet. More Americans say Trump is “fit to be president” (38%) than say the same about Biden (24%, down from 27% in September).
We're so used to hearing desperate Democratic supporters of Biden point to his supposed accomplishments, but voters aren't buying it, as the write-up also highlights:
Unfortunately for Biden, less than a quarter of Americans have “heard a lot” about his signature legislative achievements: “Congress passing a law that will enable Medicare to negotiate lower prescription drug prices” (23%); “Congress passing infrastructure investments in 2021” (20%); “Congress passing climate and clean-energy investments in 2022” (18%); and “Congress passing a gun safety law in 2022” (14%).
In contrast, far more Americans have heard a lot about Biden “physically stumbling at public events” (47%); making “verbal gaffes” (41%) and “falling asleep at public events” (33%).
It’s not particularly surprising, then, that just under a quarter of Americans (24%) think Biden has accomplished “a lot” as president.
Under the subheadline of "What it means for 2024," the write-up also notes how problematic it is that most respondents don't consider Biden to be "mostly in charge" with his presidency:
Asked whether the two leaders have been “mostly in charge” or “mostly passive” as president, a full 58% of Americans say Trump was mostly in charge, versus just 19% who say he was mostly passive.
For Biden, those numbers are nearly reversed, with 28% saying he’s been mostly in charge and 54% — again, a majority — saying he’s been mostly passive.
Of all the findings in the poll, this might be the most troubling for Biden. For one thing, it hints at why voters worry about his age: because for them, it’s linked to his ability to exercise presidential power. It also implies that voters could prove more reluctant than in the past to reward the president for, say, improvements in the economy between now and next November (since they don’t believe he’s really “in charge”).
The problematic takeways for Biden abound among registered voters, including those mentioned above, as well as how:
- 58 percent disapprove of how Biden is handling his job as president, including 46 percent who "strongly disapprove."
- 58 percent similarly have an unfavorable view of Biden.
- 38 percent, a plurality, say Biden accomplished "nothing at all." This is in comparison to the 44 percent of registered voters, also a plurality, who say Trump accomplished "a lot."
- 83 percent say Biden's age is at least "a big problem" or "a small problem" for Biden's "fitness for the presidency," with 56 percent saying it's a big one.
- 64 percent are "very concerned" or "somewhat concerned" with "Biden's health and mental acuity," including 46 percent who are very concerned.
- 56 percent say Biden does not have the "competence to carry out the job of president."
- 58 percent say "Joe Biden's verbal gaffes" will be important for their vote in 2024, including 31 percent who say it will be "very important."
- 62 percent say "Joe Biden physically stumbling at public events" will be important, including 39 percent who say it will be "very important."
- 63 percent say "Joe Buden falling asleep at public events" will be important, including 37 percent who say it will be "very important."
The poll was conducted November 9-13 with 1,584 adults and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
Overall, RCP has Trump leading with 46.2 percent to Biden's 44.9 percent, for a spread of +1.3. In addition to being up in this poll, Trump is similarly up 2 percent in a Quinnipiac poll and up 4 percent in a Fox News poll.
The Trump campaign has been highlighting polls for some time now, including and especially this week. A Wednesday night press release marking "ONE YEAR LATER" highlighted how "President Trump's Policy-Driven Re-Election Campaign Has Dominated the GOP Primary and Will Win Back The White House in 2024."
"It has been exactly one year since President Donald J. Trump announced his re-election campaign. Since then, President Trump has handily dispatched every GOP challenger and is on track to defeat Crooked Joe Biden in 2024," it read.
The release also showed, citing Stack Data Strategy, that Trump would win 292 electoral votes to Biden's 246.
ONE YEAR LATER: President Trump's Policy-Driven Re-Election Campaign Has Dominated the GOP Primary and Will Win Back The White House in 2024 pic.twitter.com/uTMsC4k5dF
— Liz Harrington (@realLizUSA) November 16, 2023
Does it mean it's all smooth sailing for Trump from here on out? Of course not. Anything can happen in those 355 days. Trump has also faced several indictments since he announced last November, and any convictions could hurt Trump with voters, likely enough so to determine the outcome of the election when it's a close race. "When it comes to Donald Trump's fitness for the presidency," specifically to do with the criminal charges, a plurality, at 47 percent, said it was "a big problem." Also, 65 percent of registered voters say that "Donald Trump facing four criminal trials in 2024" will be important to their vote, including 46 percent who say it will be "very important."
Voters are also evenly split as to whether Biden's age or Trump's criminal charges "is a bigger problem when it comes to their fitness for the presidency, with 44 percent each saying Biden's age and 44 percent saying the charges against Trump.
Fifty percent of registered voters in the poll above say Trump's not fit to be president, but then again 60 percent say that Biden is not fit.
A headline from The Hill on Thursday morning also indicated "Trump signals he’s out for revenge in second term." Democrats are to thank for that, especially when it comes to the heavily politicized indictments. But, it could still turn off some voters in the general election.
Stay tuned, primary season is almost here and this election remains increasingly one to watch.
