Later this month, qualifying Republican presidential primary candidates will have the chance to participate in the first RNC debate, this time in Milwaukee, where the convention will be held next July, less than a year later.
Even before anyone takes the stage, though, some already are certain that former and potentially future President Donald Trump will win the nomination, and that there's no need for him to debate. Trump even called on his primary opponents last month to drop out and support him as a way to rally around him, especially in light of multiple indictments. It was a suggestion some of his followers echoed, including Kari Lake, the Republican gubernatorial nominee for Arizona's 2022 race. But, Trump also expressed concerns with the treatment he's received from Fox News, which is hosting that first debate.
If the choice of network is a prevailing factor for whether or not Trump will show up to the debate stage, he might also refuse to show up for the second debate for that reason alone. It was announced on Wednesday morning that the second debate will be hosted by Fox Business. It's to take place on September 27 at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute in Simi Valley, California.
We are thrilled to have partnered with @FoxBusiness, @RumbleVideo, @Univision, and the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute to host the 2nd Republican Primary Debate in September! https://t.co/mcZwme9Ypi
— GOP (@GOP) August 9, 2023
In order for candidates to qualify for the first debate, they must meet certain criteria, including having 40,000 unique donors and be polling at at least 1 percent in either three national polls or in two national polls and in 1 one early state poll from two separate "carve out" states, including Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, and be recognized by the RNC. Trump's already qualified per such criteria. In fact, when it comes to maintaining his frontrunner status, RealClearPolitics (RCP) has him with 53.9 percent support, for a spread of +38.0.
But, there were already questions about Trump's attendance from the start when the criteria was released back in June, since candidates also have to sign a loyalty pledge that they'll support the eventual nominee. It's worth pointing out that Trump's not the only one to have balked at such a pledge. Other Republican candidates in that boat include the likes of former Rep. Will Hurd of Texas, who is polling at an average of 0.2 percent by RCP's standards.
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Regardless if Trump shows or not, it'll be a lively event. Former Vice President Mike Pence just recently became the eighth candidate to qualify earlier this week. Other qualifying candidates include Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, Vivek Ramaswamy, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and North Dakota Gov. Doug Bergum.
As the frontrunner, Trump will certainly be a main attraction, but he won't be the only one. Thus, he might not show. He's also concerned about a "hostile" relationship with Fox, though he did sit down for an interview with the network's Bret Baier in June, who will co-moderating the debate along with Martha MacCallum.
Last month, RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, who has insisted throughout that the criteria is not changing, has expressed her desire for Trump to debate. "I think it’s a mistake to not to do the debates, but that’s going to be up to him and his campaign," she told Fox News.
RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel says she has tried to convince Trump to participate in the first debate:
— The Recount (@therecount) July 19, 2023
“I think he should be on the stage … This is an audience of 20 million people plus — why wouldn’t we get in front of them before we go against Joe Biden?” pic.twitter.com/a7y6jxkzrd
Although those close to Trump, in addition to the former president himself, have hinted he might not show up, they all acknowledge it's ultimately up to Trump to decide. He's made something of a game to it, asking his supporters to share their thoughts and teasing that he may be watching so that he can get ideas for a running mate.
"Let them debate so I can see who I MIGHT consider for Vice President!," a TruthSocial post of his from July 31 read.
Even if the decision is Trump's to make, that hasn't stopped people from weighing in. In a column posted to Townhall on Wednesday, before the decision about Fox Business was announced, Star Parker argued that Trump should not debate.
"Trump on the stage in Milwaukee means the debates will be about him when they should be about our national agenda and solutions that the other seven candidates propose," Parker argued at one point. "Getting press and attention is not a challenge for Trump. So, he doesn't need the stage."
Also mentioned in the column is a recently released New York Times/Siena poll, which Trump and his supporters have been all too happy to tout, especially since it shows him with a commanding lead of 54 percent with Republican primary voters overall, to DeSantis' 17 percent. In Iowa, that support is at 44 percent to DeSantis' 20 percent.
Parker mentions the poll because of the considerable amount of Republicans, at 47 percent in Iowa, who are supporting Trump but who would consider supporting another candidate.
Jack Shafer, also on Wednesday, in a POLITICO Magazine column, offered that "Trump Should Skip the Debate," writing at one point that "by RSVPing in the negative, Trump will be doing everybody — voters, his opponents, his party, the animal kingdom and even the universe — a major favor. Trump should come no closer to the debates than watching them from his clubroom." That piece was selected for the morning edition of RCP for the day.
Where does DeSantis, the second place finisher factor into this? On Wednesday morning, ABC News highlighted the governor's debate prep, including if Trump doesn't show. This could be a big moment for DeSantis:
[Trump's] potential absence from the debate would likely place an even larger target on DeSantis, who is No. 2 in many polls -- a scenario the governor's team has been strategizing for, the sources said.
DeSantis' campaign is actively preparing him to withstand "nonstop" attacks from his fellow candidates, according to the sources.
But if Trump ultimately skips the debate, sources told ABC News that the DeSantis campaign believes the move could hurt the former president with primary voters who want to see him on the stage. DeSantis' campaign has been conducting polling on the issue with Republican voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.
Despite the uncertainty around Trump's participation, DeSantis and his campaign are working to capitalize on either scenario, sources said. If Trump does attend, the sources said to expect DeSantis to leverage the face-to-face opportunity to highlight differences between himself and Trump.
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"Regardless of whether or not Donald Trump is afraid to debate, Ron DeSantis is looking forward to being on stage in Milwaukee talking about his plans to beat Joe Biden, reverse the decline in our nation, and revive America's future," DeSantis' campaign communications director, Andrew Romeo, said in a statement to ABC News.
In an exclusive interview with ABC News in late July, DeSantis underscored that he has been preparing for the possibility that Trump will show up at the debate.
"We prepare for both eventualities," DeSantis said then. "He says he's not going to go, maybe he shows up."
"I think he should show up. I think everyone should show up. You owe it to make the case to the people about why you should be president. And at the end of the day, nobody's entitled to a nomination," he added.
The report also mentioned polling data which shows that a majority of Republican voters in the key early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada agree that "Donald Trump should debate the other challengers for the nomination. Skipping the debate makes him look weak."
Last week it was revealed that candidates will need to hit higher donor and higher polling thresholds to qualify for this second debate, with the POLITICO first detailing the criteria noting that it "could alter the contours of the primary, potentially winnowing down the number of candidates who will be able to appear onstage" come September 27.
If Trump were to skip out on the debates this time around, it wouldn't be the first time. He declined to participate in a primary debate in January 2016, also hosted by Fox News, and instead held an event for veterans. As he told CBS News at the time, he didn't regret it, which is not surprising considering he still went on to win the nomination and the presidency.
