The Ohio Senate race continues to be one of the top races to watch for 2024, as Republicans set their eyes on taking back control of the U.S. Senate in a map that is particularly favorable to them. Ohio's Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, the only Democrat elected to statewide office other than Supreme Court justices, has announced he is running for reelection. Two Republicans have since declared, including State Sen. Matt Dolan and businessman Bernie Moreno. It's a yet-to-declare candidate who is leading in the polls, though, Secretary of State Frank LaRose.
The Washington Examiner obtained the results from a poll conducted by the Louisiana-based Causeway Solutions for Leadership for Ohio Fund. The group has supported LaRose's work as secretary of state, a role he has used to defend election integrity. LaRose has also raised money for the group, the Columbus Dispatch reported.
With the primary still being nine months away, a plurality of Republican primary voters say they are "undecided." The next highest amount of voters, at 24 percent, say they support LaRose, while 17 percent say "someone else" and 11 percent say Dolan.
Just 6 percent say they support Moreno, despite the attention surrounding his campaign and former and potentially future President Donald Trump taking an interest in his candidacy, in addition to the endorsement from Ohio's Republican Sen. JD Vance. It's worth noting that Vance's endorsement came in the middle of the poll being conducted.
The poll was conducted May 19-27, with 1,639 registered voters and a margin of error of 2.5 percent. Among the respondents included 526 Republicans, 535 Democrats, and 578 independents.
The polling memo acknowledges that a possible Trump endorsement could be an "unknown factor." Trump endorsed Vance in April of last year, leading to him surging in the polls and ultimately becoming the nominee. "The former president continues to hold significant influence within the Republican Party, and approximately half of GOP Primary Voters in Ohio say an endorsement would have at least some influence on their vote," the memo goes on to read. But, a quarter of such voters say the endorsement "would have a negative effect."
Further, the memo cautions that a "campaign strategy based solely on getting the Trump endorsement is not enough" and that the "candidate who receives the endorsement, if one comes, will still need to build a coalition of voters, including those who have differing opinions on Donald Trump, to win the Primary."
When it comes to the Trump endorsement, LaRose, while at an event last September in support of Vance, touted that he was the only sitting secretary of state to have been endorsed by Trump. He won reelection by over 20 points.
This support for LaRose doesn't appear to be a fluke. The polling memo also notes that the "research shows... LaRose continues to hold a strong lead from previous polls and maintains the clear path forward for securing the nomination."
In the takeaways, the polling memo states, "LaRose benefits from his history of running, and winning, statewide four times (twice in the GOP Primary an twice in the General Election). Voters know and like him, which is evidenced by his ability to build coalitions of supporters across the state."
The memo also cites remarks from National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chairman Steve Daines that Republicans need to appeal to voters "beyond the Republican base." Shortly after being selected for the position, Daines discussed with Townhall a need "to unify as a party," and about how Republicans had lost independents, leading to midterm elections that were more disappointing for Republicans than expected.
As the memo continued to note, that "skill [to appeal to voters] will be necessary in a potential matchup with Brown, who already has a lead with independent voters."
While Ohio could indeed present one of the top opportunities for a Republican pick-up, there nevertheless remain challenges to beating an incumbent.
The poll's memo seems to be clear-eyed on that as well:
...Democrat incumbent Sherrod Brown is seeking re-election, and his history of electoral success and outperformances of other Democrats in Ohio makes him a formidable candidate in the General Election.
Though Ohio has been trending more favorably toward Republicans over the past few cycles, it remains a state where voters are willing to "split the ticket" and support candidates from both parties. Brown was a beneficiary in 2018, winning his race for U.S. Senate while the GOP swept all statewide executive offices.
The Republican candidate must be able to solidify the GOP base and appeal to moderate Independent and Swing voters if there is to be any chance of unseating Brown next November.
Last month, Tom Zawistowski, president of the tea party-affiliated We the People Convention, argued that name identification, which he said LaRose has, is the key to beating Brown.
Beyond LaRose's attributes as a winning candidate, Brown could be hurting his campaign for his willingness to campaign with President Joe Biden, who is unpopular in Ohio.
A POLITICO report from February noted that "2024's sprawling Senate map comes down to these 3 Dems," referring to Ohio, West Virginia, and Montana.
Brown is mentioned as being more than fine with being associated with Biden:
Even in Ohio, Brown said he’d “assume” he’ll campaign with Biden even if the president is unlikely to consider his state a must-win.
“I run my own race, and my own brand. So, I’m not going to run from Biden,” Brown said. “He’s also delivered more than any president in recent history.”
This poll shows that Biden has a 39 percent approval rating, while 42 percent say they "strongly disapprove." He also trails behind a generic Republican candidate 45-33 percent. Trump won Ohio in 2016 and 2020, both times by around 8 points.
The latest Civiqs poll also shows Biden with a 54 percent disapproval rating and a 38 percent approval rating.
Brown, however, has a small lead of 39-37 percent, and leads with independents, 32-38 percent.
It appears that the latest news on an announcement has been that LaRose has given a timetable of "mid-to-late" summer, according to local news outlet WLWT, which could bring us to a few weeks from now. NBC News also reported last month he's expected to announce "soon."
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