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Tipsheet

The Ohio Primary Is Just a Few Days Away, and There's A New Candidate Leading in the Polls

AP Photo/Joe Maiorana

The Ohio primary is just four days away, and there's a new candidate leading in a Fox News poll released on Tuesday. While "Undecided" still has a plurality of support from Ohio Republican primary voters, at 25 percent, that support is neck and neck with J.D. Vance's 23 percent, whom former President Donald Trump endorsed earlier this month.

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That Vance is now the best polling candidate isn't the only newsworthy bit from the poll. Not only is he outperforming the rest, but he has more than doubled the support he had in March, which was 11 percent. Rand Paul-endorsed candidate Mike Gibbons, who was the leading candidate in March with 22 percent, following the 24 percent who were "undecided," is now down to 13 percent. 

When it comes to candidates, Vance and Matt Dolan are the only candidates whose poll numbers have improved. Josh Mandel went from 20 percent to 18 percent. Jane Timken went from 9 to 6 percent, and Neil Patel went from 2 to 1 percent. 

Vance also has the best favorable ratings, with 52 percent of primary voters viewing him favorably and 23 percent viewing him unfavorably. 

The poll not only highlights the support Ohio voters have for Vance but also for Trump. 

A strong plurality of voters say that Trump's endorsement made them more supportive of Vance, by 42 percent. In fact, more said that it had no effect, at 27 percent, than said it made them less supportive, which was 23 percent of voters.

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Trump has teased for some time now that he may run for president once more. Ohio Republicans seem to be supportive of that, as 60 percent said they want him to run again, while 32 percent do not.

The former president won Ohio handily in 2016 with 51.7 percent of the vote and in 2020 with 53.3 percent of the vote.

Various polls show Trump with an edge over President Joe Biden, who has said multiple times that he plans to run for re-election. 

The poll was conducted April 20-24, surveying 906 Ohio Republican primary voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Trump endorsed Vance on April 15. 

Trump appeared at a rally in Delaware County, Ohio, last Saturday, where he continued to praise Vance, who spoke ahead of the former president. 

Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) will also campaign for Vance.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Tim Ryan is largely expected to be the nominee. In his statement endorsing Vance, Trump offered that "I think J.D. is most likely to take out the weak, but dangerous Democrat opponent--dangerous because they will have so much money to spend. However, J.D. will destroy him in the debates and will fight for the MAGA Movement in the Senate."

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A  report from The New York Times published shortly after it was revealed that Trump had endorsed Vance noted that "Mr. Trump has also told allies that he believes the leading Democratic candidate, Representative Tim Ryan, will be difficult to face in the general election and that he thinks Mr. Vance can beat him."

The seat is currently held by Sen. Rob Portman, a Republican who is retiring. 

The predictions for this particular seat look good for Republicans as well. Cook Political Report has it at "Lean Republican," while Sabato's Crystal Ball is at "Likely Republican" and Inside Elections is "Solid Republican."

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