About a month out from the midterm elections, there are some key Senate battleground states worth watching. Pennsylvania is certainly one, which is an open seat. Out west, though, there's states like Nevada and Arizona, where vulnerable Democratic incumbents have to defend their seats against Republican challengers.
Nevada is particularly worth watching, as Decision Desk HQ, which places a heavy emphasis on incumbency, last week changed their forecast of the race to "toss-up." Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) has been regarded as one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the Senate, and she has a formidable challenger with Adam Laxalt, who served as attorney general there. Polls have shown Laxalt with a small but consistent lead.
While Arizona is not as sure a bet when it comes to flipping this seat currently held by Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), it's still worth watching.
Both the Nevada and Arizona races were the subject of CNN polls released on Thursday, though Jennifer Agiesta, the CNN polling director, didn't seem to willing to call a lead for Laxalt. "CNN Polls: Democrat holds edge in Arizona Senate race while Nevada contest has no clear leader," her headline for the write-up read.
In Nevada, Laxalt has 48 percent with likely voters to Cortez Masto's 46 percent. Lending credence to Agiesta's headline is that Laxalt's support with registered voters decreases to 44 percent, while Cortez Masto's support increases to 47 percent.
RealClearPolitics (RCP), which has factored in the CNN poll's likely voter numbers, has a +2.1 lead for Laxalt.
There's even worse news for incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak (D-NV) running against Republican nominee Joe Lombardo. The two are tied among registered voters, at 46 percent. But 48 percent of likely voters support Lombardo, while 46 percent of such voters say they support Sisolak. RCP has a lead of +1.6 for Lombardo.
President Joe Biden may also be dragging down his fellow Democrats, since the poll finds 41 percent of likely voters approve of how he's handling his job as president, while 59 percent disapprove. Registered voters are even more likely to not be thrilled with the job he's doing, as just 39 percent approve.
The poll also suggests good news for Republicans overall in that, by double digits, both likely voters and registered voters think the country will be "better off" if Republicans win control of Congress. For likely voters, the numbers were 47 percent compared to the 36 percent who said "worse off," and 44 percent to 35 percent for registered voters.
Like voters in other states and nationwide, Nevada voters care about economic issues, which Republicans have had a consistent edge on. Forty-four percent of both likely voters and registered voters say that "the economy and inflation" is their top issue when it comes to deciding who they'll vote for. While abortion comes in at number two for both groups, it's a rather distant second, at 14 percent.
As I've highlighted in a previous VIP piece on the results from an Emerson College poll from last month showing similar results, Cortez Masto has been particularly pro-abortion, even going after pregnancy resource centers.
Crisis pregnancy centers consistently mislead vulnerable women about the health care services they provide. I joined my colleagues in cosponsoring the Stop Anti-Abortion Disinformation Act to crack down on false advertising about abortion services by these fake clinics.
— Senator Cortez Masto (@SenCortezMasto) September 9, 2022
On the economy, 57 percent of both likely and registered voters feel that the economy is getting worse, which is highlighted by Agiesta in her write-up:
Economic issues are the clear top concern for Arizonans and Nevadans, the polls found, with more than twice as many voters citing economy and inflation as their top issue as they did the second-place issue in each state, abortion (44% economy vs. 14% abortion in Nevada, 41% economy to 17% abortion in Arizona). Majorities in each state say that the economy there is worsening (63% in Arizona, 57% in Nevada), while a scant share in either state say things are improving (15% in Nevada, 6% in Arizona).
It's also worth noting that by double digits, Republican respondents are more likely to say that they're "extremely motivated," to vote, by 62 percent to 52 percent. Agiesta acknowledged as much in her write-up as well.
This CNN poll was conducted September 26-October 2 with 926 registered voters and 828 likely voters, for which there is a margin of error of plus or minus of 4.7 percent and plus or minus 5 percent, respectively.
Another poll looked to Arizona as well, where Sen. Kelly is ahead by 10 points with registered voters, 52 percent to Republican Blake Masters' 42 percent. His lead narrows significantly, though, among likely voters. 51 percent to Masters' 45 percent. Reflecting the CNN poll, RCP has a lead of +4.1 for Kelly.
Also on Thursday, CDMedia Big Data poll released their findings for Arizona, where most respondents said they were "certain to vote." The results were much more narrow, in that Kelly had a lead of 45.8 percent compared to Masters' 45.2 percent.
The CNN poll also found a lead for Democrat Katie Hobbs who is running against Republican Kari Lake for governor in Arizona. Hobbs enjoys 49 percent from both likely and registered voters, but her lead is more narrow among likely voters, as 46 percent of them support Lake.
Other polls have shown Lake ahead, giving her a RCP average of a +1.1 lead.
Biden is also similarly down in Arizona, with just 41 percent of likely voters approving of the job he's doing, while 58 percent disapprove. As is the case with Nevada, just 39 percent of registered voters approve.
While the results are more narrow than they were in Nevada, voters still think that the country would be "better off," if Republicans took control of Congress, with 47 percent of likely voters and 44 percent of registered voters saying so.
Similar to Nevada, "the economy and inflation" was a top issue for respondents deciding who to vote for, at 39 percent for likely voters and 41 percent for registered voters. Abortion came next, but was also a distant second, at 18 percent for likely voters and 17 percent for registered voters.
Much has been made about the abortion issue in this race, as Masters has moderated his stance but Kelly has hardly had to answer for his extreme pro-abortion position. It also came up as an issue in Thursday night's debate.
.@bgmasters: "[Mark Kelly] sponsored a bill that would've mandated legal abortion nationwide — get this — up until the moment of birth."
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) October 7, 2022
"The only country in the whole world that support Sen. Kelly's preferred no limits, extreme abortion policy are China and North Korea." pic.twitter.com/Hf0AvvsKS2
The results are more stark when it comes to how Arizona voters feel about the economy in that 63 percent of registered and likely voters feel the economy is "getting worse," while just 6 percent of likely voters and 7 percent of registered voters think it's "getting better."
As Agiesta highlighted in her write-up, Arizona Republican respondents are also more likely to say they're "extremely motivated" to vote, by 62 percent to 52 percent.
This poll was also conducted September 26-October 2. It included 900 registered voters and 795 likely voters, for which there was a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent and plus or minus 4.6 percent, respectively.
