Let's begin by getting something straight here. The Texas gubernatorial race was always going to favor Gov. Greg Abbott. It's Texas, after all. As I've highlighted in a previous piece, Texas is not only not close to becoming blue, it's even purple. It's in the top half of most red states in the country. Abbott is also running against Beto O'Rourke, who is not only a former congressman, but who has lost several other races before this race he's almost certainly going to lose, including for U.S. Senate in 2018 and the 2020 Democratic presidential primary after that.
Thursday's headline from the Houston Chronicle thus presents a bit of a non-issue, at best. "Abbott lead over O'Rourke in Texas governor's race widens as voters focus on immigration over abortion," it read. Twitter even promoted the lengthy thread detailing the article's highlights as one of their news "events" the same day.
The poll in question comes from Spectrum News/Siena College, which shows Abbott up 50 percent to Rourke's 43 percent.
Immigration is indeed a bigger issue than abortion. It's the third most important issue, at 13 percent, while abortion came in fourth, at 12 percent. That the Houston Chronicle would go through such great lengths to highlight the importance of abortion when it's just not so much of a priority for voters is nothing new. Various other VIP pieces have highlighted other media outlets that are up to the same trick, and these are only a few examples of what's par for the course.
Economic issues, as they are in various other states and nationally, remains the top issue for respondents when it comes to how they will determine who to vote for. A plurality, at 37 percent, picked "Economic issues including inflation and cost of living" as their top issue.
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Respondents were also asked what their second most important issue was, and so the poll tallied the range of issues when it comes to how they ranked as first and second choice. A majority chose the "economic issues" category, at 59 percent. Abortion came in fourth, at 22 percent.
The actual article briefly mentioned how abortion came in at 22 percent as a first or second choice issue, and also addressed it in the thread.
When asked to rank their top two issues, though, the numbers evened out — 13 percent said immigration was their first or second choice; it was 12 percent for abortion. Texans overwhelmingly consider the economy and inflation their highest priority. pic.twitter.com/c7vD2C6TxD
— Houston Chronicle (@HoustonChron) September 22, 2022
The piece mentions criticism Abbott, a known pro-life governor, faced for not focusing on abortion:
Abbott took heat earlier this summer for avoiding discussions about abortion access after the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe or gun safety in the aftermath of the May 24 Uvalde shooting, [Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project] said. Abbott instead focused on his border initiative, Operation Lone Star, that arrests migrants on state trespassing charges — an issue sure to rile his base, he said.
There was no criticism of how O'Rourke as handled the issue though, despite him going on record at an event last month when he refused to name any abortion limit he supported. "I trust women and their doctors to make their decisions about their body, about their healthcare, and about their future," he offered.
DEMOCRAT BETO O’ROURKE says supporting NO LIMITS on abortion is "the best, smartest, most Constitutional and most American and most Texan approach.” pic.twitter.com/NXK7GHZQfb
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) August 28, 2022
Not only did O'Rourke communicate no support for any restriction, including partial-birth abortion, as he was asked by a reporter, he went on to say that his position is "the best, smartest, um, uh, most constitutional and most American and Texan approach to this issue, and that's the way that I would approach it."
In addition to listing out the impotence of the issues, the thread also takes the opportunity to criticize Gov. Abbott for sending illegal immigrants to sanctuary cities. While it acknowledges that there are "a record number of... encounters" this year, Abbott appropriately highlighting how stretched thin border cities and states are due to President Joe Biden worsening the crisis at the border, it's phrased as "what [Abbott] has described."
Abbott has been busing thousands of migrants out of Texas and dropping them off in Washington, D.C., New York City and Chicago, in what he has described as an attempt to show President Joe Biden how grave the situation is at the border.
— Houston Chronicle (@HoustonChron) September 22, 2022
As the piece also mentioned:
The Siena poll was conducted Sept. 14 through 18 as Abbott continues to draw national attention for busing thousands of migrants out of Texas and dropping them off in Washington, D.C., New York City and Chicago, in what he has described as an attempt to show President Joe Biden how grave the situation is at the border. The governor's critics have characterized the program as a stunt that uses human beings as political pawns.
There's no mention of the actual crisis at the border or the role the Biden administration has played in it, though.
Nevertheless, the piece was forced to admit that such policies are popular with a majority of respondents, and that Abbott receives higher marks on handling border security:
About 52 percent of likely voters support the busing initiative, according to the Siena poll. Another 40 percent oppose the effort.
...
Those issues [of border security and immigration] are far more important to Republican voters than Democrats, polling shows. And on average, Abbott is viewed as more capable of handling border security concerns than O’Rourke.
The thread closes with a note that suggests readers not necessarily believe the polls here, perhaps as a way to provide cover for O'Rourke? With statewide races in states as reliably red as Texas, though, it's not likely that we need polls to tell us Abbott is almost certainly going to win.
Siena's poll, which statistically adjusted its results for age, race, regional vote pattern and other markers, has a 4.4-point margin of error.
— Houston Chronicle (@HoustonChron) September 22, 2022
It's also worth highlighting comments from Professor Don Levy, the director of the Siena Research Institute, as included in a write-up for Spectrum News. "What’s more important to them? Their agreement with Gov. Abbott on economic issues or immigration? Or whether they tend to agree with Beto O’Rourke on abortion, or education?" Levy said. "Right now, we see a seven-point lead that suggests Abbott’s issues are winning out."
The poll in question was conducted September 14-18 with 651 likely Texas voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Pollster Richard Baris offered quite the blunt take when responding to the headline.
Please. @GregAbbott_TX's lead is not "widening". He was always going to kick @BetoORourke's ass.
— Rich Baris "The People's Pundit" (@Peoples_Pundit) September 22, 2022
Pretty badly, in fact.
The pollster you contracted didn't call a single battleground state correctly in 2020, for crying out loud. https://t.co/8iMICTkhZB
Forecasters most certainly consider this race to favor Abbott, as it's considered "Likely Republican" or "Sold Republican." According to an average of polls from RealClearPolitics, there's a lead of +7.5 for Abbott.
