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New Poll Has Telling Results for Pennsylvania in 2022, and Beyond

Townhall Media

Earlier this week, the Trafalgar Group released a poll showing that the results of the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania and the Pennsylvania governor's race are closer than we've been made to believe, with Republican senatorial candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz losing narrowly to Democrat John Fetterman by about 5 points, and Republican gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano losing narrowly to Josh Shapiro, by about 4 points. Robert Cahaly, the founder of Trafalgar, told Townhall that he believes both candidates have a chance of making up their deficit in the polls, in a matter of weeks or even days.

That poll from the Trafalgar Group, which has been among the most consistent polls and has an A- rating from FiveThirtyEight, is not an outlier. Earlier on Thursday, Emerson College released their polling on the races, and it turns out Oz and Mastriano trail their Democratic opponents by even smaller margins.

Fetterman has a lead of just 4 percent, with 48 percent to Oz's 44 percent. Five percent are undecided. That lead is quite narrow not just from what else we've been told about the race, but because of more detailed findings from Emerson. 

For instance, 56 percent of votes have an unfavorable view of Oz, including a plurality, at 45 percent, who have a "very unfavorable" view of him. Meanwhile, 46 percent say they have a negative view of Fetterman, including the 38 percent who say it's a "very unfavorable" view. Slightly more voters, at 48 percent, have a favorable view of him. A slight majority, at 51 percent, also say that Oz's New Jersey residency makes it less likely they'll vote for him. 

What may also be dragging Oz down is that regardless of who they support, a majority of voters, at 56 percent, think Fetterman will win, compared to the 44 percent who think Oz will win. 

Tellingly, Oz and Fetterman are evenly split when it comes to which candidate suburban voters, which Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, is quoted as calling "the battleground for this election." Each candidate has the support of 47 percent of those voters. 

This Senate race for an open seat currently held by Sen. Pat Toomey, a Republican who is retiring, has been constantly in the news, oftentimes for online squabbles the candidates are finding themselves in. Earlier this week, though, it was because CNN's Jake Tapper dared to tweet out a column from Salena Zito, who is quite familiar with Pennsylvania, that she wrote for the Washington Examiner. As our friends at Twitchy highlighted, the left went absolutely nuts. 

Earlier on Thursday, Katie highlighted how Tapper also discussed the state of the race on air, in that many have noticed how Fetterman, who suffered a stroke shortly before he won his primary, is struggling to coherently speak

The race is even closer between Shapiro and Mastriano. Shapiro has 47 percent support while Mastriano has 44 percent support. Six percent are undecided. That Shapiro is ahead by just 3 percentage points means his lead is within the margin of error.

Such a lead is narrower despite how there is more of a gap between Shapiro and Mastriano with their favorable ratings. Fifty percent have an unfavorable view of Mastriano, including a plurality, at 43 percent, who say it's "very unfavorable." Shapiro has even higher favorability ratings than Fetterman, at 52 percent. Thirty-four percent of voters each say that their view of Shapiro is "very unfavorable" or "very favorable."

A majority, at 57 percent, believe Shapiro will win, while 43 percent Mastriano will win that race. 

Kimball also weighed in on the state of the gubernatorial race. "While Mastriano’s unfavorables are not as intense as Oz’s unfavorables, he faces the upward challenge of running against Shapiro, the most popular candidate on the ballot who also holds statewide office," he's quoted as saying. 

Emerson didn't merely ask voters about 2022, though, but about 2024 as well. When it comes to a hypothetical rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, giving us a rematch of 2020, Trump has a lead of 5 percentage points, 47 percent to Biden's 42 percent. 

According to Emerson, Biden has just a 39 percent approval rating in the state where he was born, while 57 percent disapprove. Civiqs similarly shows that Biden has a 37 percent approval rating in the Keystone state, while 54 percent disapprove. Nine percent are undecided. 

The Emerson poll of Pennsylvania voters was conducted August 22-23 with 1,034 very likely general election voters. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. 

A Morning Consult poll released in July also found that Biden's approval ratings in Pennsylvania for the second quarter are at -19. Trump also fared better in Pennsylvania at such a point in 2018 than Biden does now, with his 45 percent approval to Biden's 39 percent. 

President Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 with 50 percent of the vote to Trump's 48.8 percent. Trump winning the state in 2016 over Hillary Clinton was also narrow, with 48.2 percent to her 47.5 percent. But again, Biden was born in Pennsylvania. Neither Clinton nor her running mate, Sen. Tim Kaine, were. 

When it comes to an overall state of these races, RealClearPolitics has Trump up by +3 for the 2024 race, Fetterman up by +7.8, and Shapiro up by +5.9


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