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Poll: Biden Is in Trouble Not Just for 2022, but 2024

AP Photo/Evan Vucci

Earlier on Wednesday, I highlighted the results of a Morning Consult write-up showing that Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) is the senator who has improved the most from the first quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022. That's not great for President Joe Biden, considering that the White House has piled on when it comes to the insults and attacks after Manchin effectively killed Build Back Better last December. 

We've been saying for months how Biden and the Democrats are doomed when it comes to the November midterms, which a Morning Consult poll also revealed. The poll highlights not just a concern for how Biden's approval ratings could affect 2022, but 2024, as well. "Biden’s Net Approval Rating Is Underwater in 40 States," reads Eli Yokley's write-up from Tuesday morning. His headline goes on to note that "The president has made up no ground in states that’ll be key to Democrats’ chances in 2022 and 2024."

When we say Biden "is underwater" here, boy do we mean underwater. His net approval is -50 in West Virginia, as I mentioned in earlier coverage from Wednesday, and it's similarly bad in North Dakota and Wyoming, where his net approval is -47. It's -41 in Idaho. 

"According to Morning Consult Political Intelligence quarterly tracking in all 50 states, more voters now disapprove than approve of Biden’s job performance in 40 states, following double-digit declines in his net approval rating — the share of voters who approve minus the share who disapprove — since he took office in January 2021," Yokley writes. 

Even when it comes to the states where Biden has a net approval rating, the numbers aren't that stellar either, especially since we're talking about bright blue states. Not surprisingly, Biden's best state is California, where he has a net approval of 19. In Vermont, it's 13, followed by Maryland where it's 12, Massachusetts where it's 10, Hawaii where it's 9, New York where it's 6, Washington State where it's 5, Biden's state of Delaware where it's 4, and Rhode Island and Illinois, both where the president's net approval is at 2.

Data from Civiqs, which was last updated on April 25, is even worse for the president, as it shows that he has managed to avoid underwater approval ratings in just 4 states: Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Vermont. 

These states aren't surprising, although it's really not great that Biden isn't doing better in many of those above states where he's above water.

What's particularly noteworthy is how poorly Biden is doing in key battleground states, including states where he won, and where he started off with a net approval.

In Arizona, where Biden narrowly won in 2020, Biden was at a 51 percent approval rating for the first quarter of 2021. He's now at a 41 percent approval rating, while 55 percent disapprove. Voters are closely divided in Colorado, with 47 percent approving while 49 percent disapprove. Biden started off with 57 percent approving at the first quarter of 2021. In Georgia, Biden went from a 53 percent approval rating to a 42 percent approval rating, while 54 percent disapprove. 

Even in Pennsylvania, where Biden was born, he went from a 52 percent approval rating to a 41 percent approval rating, while 56 percent disapprove. Virginia is highlighted as well, with Biden's low approval ratings being an issue leading up to last November's gubernatorial race, where Republicans swept. Biden went from an approval rating of 56 percent to 46 percent. He went from a 38 percent disapproval rating to 50 percent. 

And, when it comes to key states, especially for 2024, Yokley writes:

Biden’s net approval rating has dropped by more than 20 points over the past year in all of the states hosting hotly contested Senate races or competitive House races this fall that are also set to feature prominently in 2024.

Even in Colorado, which Biden won by nearly 14 points in 2020, more voters disapprove of him than approve, 49% to 47%. It’s similar to his standing in Virginia, where his downturn among self-identified suburbanites helped hand Republican Glenn Youngkin the governorship.

Voters of all stripes in key states have soured on Biden since he took office last year, but the attrition has been most severe among independents. Except for in Arizona and New Hampshire, the president has seen sharper declines among unaffiliated voters than any either partisan group.

The bleeding has been worst in Michigan, a state Biden won by less than 3 points in 2020, where his net approval rating has dropped by 38 points among independents — larger than the 33-point declines that have pulled him underwater with independents in Georgia and Minnesota. 

Yokely tried to provide some optimism for the president, keyword tried. "If there’s a silver lining for the president, it’s that in most states, the pace of his decline slowed between the last quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022. But that might not provide much solace for Democrats in key states in this year’s elections, or for his party looking to place itself on good footing ahead of the 2024 presidential election," his write-up mentions. 

When it comes to 2024, Biden has repeatedly said he intends to run for re-election, though his age and mental capacity have been referenced quite a bit when it comes to the number of gaffes our oldest president has. Should Biden run for re-election and win, he will be 83 years old at his second inauguration.

As I've highlighted, even friendly mainstream media outlets, such as The Washington Post, have frequently chimed in to speculate on the possibility that Biden will not be the nominee. Polls also show that even a majority of Democratic voters don't want him running again.

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