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Tipsheet

More Polls Bring More Bad News for Joe Biden

AP Photo/Alex Brandon

When last month's Quinnipiac poll came out showing President Joe Biden had a 33 percent approval rating, the White House released a memo claiming it was just an outlier, touting what was then the president's 43 percent approval rating, according to FiveThirtyEight. It was a move that CNN's Chris Cillizza called out for being so "baffling." Earlier this month, I highlighted how Biden's average approval had actually hit the 30s, when it was at 39.8 on February 9, according to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average. While that average is now at 40.8 percent as of early Sunday morning, plenty of polls recently released have Biden's approval ratings in the 30s, which are personal lows for many of them. 

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Quinnipiac has since released another poll. Is it any better for the president? His approval rating is technically higher among Americans, at 35 percent, while 55 percent disapprove, down from the 56 percent it was in January. Those numbers are statistical ties, though, as they're within the margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points for the 1,321 Americans. 

For the registered voters in that poll, Biden's approval rating is at 37 percent compared to the 56 percent who disapprove. In January, those numbers were at 35 and 54 percent, respectively. With a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points for the 1,172 registered voters, it's also within the margin of error. 

The poll showed Biden performing underwater in every issue respondents were asked about, many of them by double digits. 

While Quinnipiac is where Biden appears to be performing worst in the polls, it's certainly not the only one where he's in the 30s. As Julia Manchester covered for The Hill on Friday, a Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey shared exclusively with that outlet has Biden at a 38 percent approval rating among registered voters. That poll also found that 64 percent of respondents think Biden has been "too lenient" with Vladimir Putin, who recently ordered his Russian forces to invade Ukraine.

Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll also found that 62 percent of respondents believe that Putin would not have invaded Russia if former President Donald Trump was in office, as I covered yesterday morning. Trump made Putin's inaction during his administration a major talking point during the keynote address he gave at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) on Saturday night.

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Manchester's coverage also includes a quote from the director of the survey. "On the eve of his State of the Union, the president has hit a new low as inflation and economic anxiety hit new highs. The president is now underwater on every top domestic and foreign policy issue," said Mark Penn. 

Then there's the ABC News-Washington Post poll. According to the section that was just released earlier this morning, Biden is at a 37 percent approval rating among respondents, while 55 percent disapprove. The ABC News write-up from Gary Langer warns that "Economic concerns hurt Biden’s approval, keep Democrats in peril ahead of midterms."

As his write-up begins, with added emphasis:

Economic discontent is hurting President Joe Biden and his party's midterm election prospects, with six in 10 Americans reporting inflation hardships, three-quarters saying the economy’s in bad shape and a nearly 20-point lead for the Republican Party in trust to handle it.

Biden has other problems, with underwater ratings for his handling of the invasion of Ukraine, a split on the pandemic and weak scores on personal attributes including leadership, handling a crisis and mental sharpness.

But 40-year-high inflation leads his headaches: Americans are twice as likely to say they’re worse off than better off under his presidency, by 35-17% 

The result: A career-low 37% of Americans approve of Biden’s job performance overall, with 55% disapproving. That includes just 30% approval among political independents and 10% from Republicans. Even in his own party, nearly a quarter of Democrats either disapprove of Biden (19%) or are withholding judgment (4%).

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Here's where it gets even worse for Biden. His supporters are able to say less and less that at least he's fared better than Trump. Langer also notes that when it comes to presidential administrations since President Harry S. Truman, only two other presidents had ratings this low ahead of their State of the Union address, which for Biden will be on Tuesday. Those would be Trump's 36 percent, and President Gerald R. Ford, who was also at 37 percent.

That poll had a random national sample of 1,011 adults, which included 904 registered voters, and a margin of error at 4.0 percentage points.  

There was still another poll where Biden's approval rating was in the 30s, another personal low. According to a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, just 39 percent of respondents approve. There's also a bullet point from Marist that notes how much of "a failure" Biden's first year in office has been:

  • Majorities of Americans think Biden’s first year in office has been a failure (56%), he is not fulfilling campaign promises (54%), and he is doing more to divide the nation (52%) than to unite it. Americans are more than four times as likely to consider Biden’s first year to be a major failure (36%) than a major success (8%).

That poll surveyed 1,264 adults and says the results are statistically significant within plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. 

Chris Cillizza highlighted this poll in his analysis from Saturday morning, calling it "A brutal poll number for Joe Biden," adding that "these poll numbers are extremely problematic for Democrats on the ballot this fall."

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As mentioned above, the RCP Average for Biden is at a 40.8 percent approval rating, while 54.6 percent disapprove, using data from February 10-24. 

The numbers for FiveThirtyEight, which again, the White House has cited in the past, are similar, showing Biden at a 40.8 percent approval rating as well, and a 53.2 percent disapproval rating. It was last updated on Friday morning. 

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