CNN Poll Thinks It's Found Smoking Gun on How Republicans Feel About Trump Running in 2024, Misses Key Detail

Posted: Sep 12, 2021 9:30 PM
CNN Poll Thinks It's Found Smoking Gun on How Republicans Feel About Trump Running in 2024, Misses Key Detail

Source: AP Photo/Tony Dejak

A CNN poll released on Sunday has some insight about how Republican and Republican-leaning independents feel about former President Donald Trump as the leader of their party.

The takeaway from a write-up for CNN by Ariel Edwards-Levy and Jennifer Agiesta reads that "Most Republicans want Trump as the GOP's leader but are divided about whether he'd help them retake the White House."

Indeed most do, by 63 percent to 37 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning independents who say that "Yes, Trump should be the leader."

The poll also seems to think it's found a smoking gun in that far less of these respondents want Trump to run again in 2024. 

"Do you think Republicans have a better chance of winning the presidency in 2024 if Donald Trump is the party's nominee, or do they have a better chance of winning with someone else as the party's nominee?," the question asks. It's evenly divided and within the margin of error, with 51 percent saying there's a better chance with Trump and 49 percent saying with someone else. 

What's the big deal there? The numbers are much different from March 2019, when they were 78 percent to 17 percent.

Except there's a bit of a major difference between when the poll was conducted from March 14-17, 2019 and when it was conducted this time, August 3-September 7, 2021. 

In 2019, Trump was still in office. Trump's approval rating with Republicans in the over 20 times party members were polled by Gallup in 2019 never went below 87 percent. Incumbents tend to run for re-election and when they do, they're nominated. It's American history. 

Trump, while he still has support from Republicans, is no longer in office. If respondents were polled both times while Trump was still in office and there was this much of a contrast, then that would be a different story. 

The poll also asked respondents, depending on political party, to choose "How important is each of the following to what being a Republican means to you?"

At 86 percent, "Believing that the federal government should have less power" was the most popular selection. While "Believing that Donald Trump won the 2020 election," was the least popular selection, a majority of Republican and Republican-leaning independents still said this was important, at 59 percent. 

This 2021 poll was conducted by SSRS from August 3-September 7, with a random sample of 2,119 adults. The margin of error is 2.8 percent with a 95 percent confidence level. 

While conducting a surprise visit to an NYPD precinct in Midtown Manhattan on the 20th anniversary of 9/11, Trump said "for me it's an easy question" and that "I think you're going to be very happy" when he was asked if he's going to run in 2024.

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