With just days to go before Election Day, Virginia’s 7th Congressional District remains a key "Toss-Up" House race this cycle. While Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is retiring to run for governor, the race no longer favors the Democratic candidate looking to replace her, Eugene Vindman. In fact, that momentum may be with Republican Derrick Anderson.
On Wednesday, PBS News published an analysis of House races, with the headline focusing on the chance that Democrats win back control of the chamber. However, there's mention of "Where Democrats are vulnerable," and that includes in Virginia:
Democrats have fewer races in the toss-up category: 11, compared with 15 for Republicans. But those are still 11 races that Democrats could lose.
Those toss-ups are across the map: Reps. Mary Peltola in Alaska, Yadira Caraveo in Colorado, Jared Golden in Maine (running against a former NASCAR driver), Don Davis in North Carolina, Gabe Vasquez in New Mexico, Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright in Pennsylvania, and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington state. And there are two toss-up open seats in Michigan, as well as one in Virginia.
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But in Virginia, where Rep. Abigail Spanberger has left her seat open to run for governor, Democrat Eugene Vindman is seeing his numbers go the wrong way. Vindman, the twin brother of Trump whistleblower Alexander Vindman, also had a small role in the first Trump impeachment. He initially ran on those credentials but the district has been unimpressed and now he rarely mentions it.
Vindman not only "initially ran on those credentials," but he made it a major topic of the crowded primary he was running in. "I think that having someone who has stood up to Donald Trump, that has stood up to MAGA Republicans, that has been denounced for doing that, standing by their values, from the steps of the White House, is critically important," he even said during an April candidate
This was a race where more local candidates were also looking for the nomination. In fact, state Democrats took issue with Vindman's run, prompting some particularly uncharitable and unhelpful comments from the candidate's sister-in-law, Rachel Vindman, who is married to Alexander Vindman, the candidate's twin brother. This would not be the only time she was involved in bringing unwelcome attention to her brother-in-law's campaign.
The PBS analysis links to a deep dive from The Washington Post, which addresses how Vindman won't touch the issue of the first impeachment against then-President Donald Trump, while Anderson has been focusing on it. Vindman is even quoted as laughably claiming it never actually was his focus. While concern from Democratic leadership may play a role as to why he's not focusing on it, the report also suggests how not mentioning it could hurt him:
The impeachment “is just not my focus and frankly it’s never something that I’ve defined myself by,” Vindman said in an interview after a campaign stop last Saturday in Culpeper, a more conservative, rural part of the district. “Primarily, my motivation is my family and my kids: I want to make sure they have access to the American Dream like I had.”
The shift might also be a response to House Democratic leaders, who have privately fretted that Vindman’s link to the impeachment investigation will hurt him in a purple district that favors independent-leaning legislators like Spanberger, according to two people familiar with the race who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal strategy. The Vindman campaign referred a request for comment to Spanberger, who said in a statement that Vindman would be a “commonsense legislator who will work across the aisle to deliver results.” She added: “I can see that he’s already earning trust in our communities.”
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Yet without that backstory — plus no record in elected office and shaky personal ties to many areas in this geographically diverse district — others point out that Vindman might struggle to win over parts of the electorate less familiar to him.
Another detail that looks to haunt Vindman is his avoidance of debates, which Anderson has also capitalized on. While Anderson attended an event hosted by the Culpeper NAACP on Thursday night, Vindman refused to attend what would have been a debate, and will thus participate in a separate event.
"It was very nice to speak to the Culpeper NAACP tonight — I appreciate their time. It’s sad that it took so long to have this very simple candidate discussion. We’ve been trying to do a joint event with the Culpeper NAACP for months and even confirmed a debate, but unfortunately Yevgeny Vindman declined over and over again. In fact, he wouldn’t even show up tonight if he had to be onstage with me. Vindman is terrified of publicly defending his lies about his military resume, his shady business dealings, and his far-left radical beliefs," Anderson said about the event.
According to an email from the Anderson campaign, both candidates were invited to attend a September event back in July, which Anderson accepted. The campaign also referred to Vindman's actions with the NAACP event as "the most disrespectful treatment of the hosts by his team that we’ve seen."
Thursday's event also coincided with an ad that Anderson released to highlight Vindman's avoidance of debates and media interviews.
NEW AD: @YVindman has dodged debates, interviews, & voters across #VA07, because he cannot answer questions about his military rank & time in combat, his shady business dealings, & his far-left radical beliefs.
— Derrick Anderson (@DerrickforVA) October 31, 2024
The evidence is clear, he won't represent ALL of #VA07. pic.twitter.com/kU6Ed8tQGd