Tipsheet

New Poll: Trump Is Still Up in Key Swing States

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  June 20, 2024 12:30 PM

On Thursday, Emerson College Polling/The Hill released their June poll on seven key swing states, with even Minnesota included in that mix, as may turn out to be a swing state as well this election cycle. Former and potentially future President Donald Trump leads in six of the seven states in a head-to-head matchup against President Joe Biden, while he and Biden are tied at 45 percent each in Minnesota.

Trump leads Biden in Arizona by +4 (47-43 percent), in Georgia by +4 (45-41 percent), in Michigan by +1 (46-45 percent), Nevada by +3 (46-43 percent), in Biden's home state of Pennsylvania by +2 (47-45 percent), and in Wisconsin by +3 (47-44 percent). 

Trump maintains his edge in such states even after he was convicted last month on 34 felony charges in New York City in a hush money "trial." In states such as Michigan and Nevada, his support has even slightly increased from the April poll, when he was at 45 percent in both states for that poll. Nevada's been one of Trump's best swing states, though Michigan could be one of the more trickier ones. That he has such a lead in Wisconsin also looks to be significant, as this could be another tricky state for Trump, though Biden actually went down 1 point there. 

"In our first polling in several key swing states since Trump’s conviction last month, there has been little movement, with support for both Trump and Biden staying largely consistent since November," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, is quoted as saying, though he also highlighted how "Notably, results fall within the poll’s margin of error."

A potential warning sign involves a drop in support from Independents for Trump, though Biden also saw a drop in support from the key voting bloc as well. Trump also still leads with Independents. 

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"Independent voters break for Trump in all seven states – however, there has been some movement among these voters since April," Kimball is also quoted as saying. "In Arizona, Trump’s support among independents dropped five points, from 48% to 43%. In Michigan, Trump’s support dropped three, from 44% to 41%, and in Pennsylvania, Trump dropped eight points, from 49% to 41%. Biden lost support among independents in Georgia, by six points, 42% to 36% and Nevada, by five, 37% to 32%."

In all seven states, a majority of voters disapprove of Biden:

  • Arizona: 36 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove,10 percent are neutral
  • Georgia: 35 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove, making it worst state, but also where he has the highest amount of neutral voters, at 11 percent
  • Michigan: 39 percent approve, 52 percent disapprove, 10 percent are neutral, making it one of his "best" states
  • Minnesota: 38 percent approve, 51 percent disapprove, 11 percent are neutral
  • Nevada: 38 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove, 9 percent are neutral 
  • Pennsylvania: 39 percent approve, 53 percent disapprove, 8 percent are neutral

Even with the conviction, this still looks to be a close and competitive race. Polls show that the conviction has not changed voters' minds. "Voters were asked if Donald Trump’s criminal conviction of 34 felonies impacts their vote this November, or if it has no impact. A plurality in all states say it has no impact on their vote," this particular Emerson College Polling write-up noted.

This lack of effect hasn't stopped the Biden reelection campaign from seizing on the narrative that Trump is a "convicted criminal," including through a new ad released earlier this week. 

The polls were conducted June 13-18 with 1,000 registered voters in each state. "The credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, for the sample is +/- 3% in 19 of 20 cases in each state," the write-up noted.

RealClearPolling has included the poll results in their latest roundup of such key battleground states, though Minnesota is not included. Again, Minnesota might still yet be a battleground state, especially since last week's polling averages from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill showed Trump leading by +1.6 there. RCP also includes North Carolina, while this poll does not. Other than those different states, and how Trump has a greater overall lead in Nevada, the results look to be pretty consistent.

Although 538 does not look to have included this poll in their forecast yet, the forecast still shows Trump winning 50 out of 100 times as of Thursday morning, while Biden wins 49 out of 100 times. This comes after Biden looked to be winning more times at the time of 538's forecast release from last week.  

The Make America Great Again Inc. PAC sent out a press release about the poll results, as well as posted and reposted about the responses. As the press release highlighted, when other candidates are included in the mix, Trump leads in all of the seven states and even leads Biden by +1 in Minnesota, 42-41 percent.

The poll's release comes one week before the June 27 debate between Trump and Biden that was agreed to last month.