As we've been covering, President Joe Biden has not been doing great in the polls. Even when it comes to the polls where he has a lead, there's still several problem areas for the deeply unpopular incumbent president. This presidents both an opportunity and a challenge to former and potentially future President Donald Trump, but also above all reminds us that it'll be a close and competitive race, and no man should take anything for granted.
Trump certainly is making note of the opportunity. In a Monday email, his campaign shared a report from Gallup highlighting how "Confidence in Biden Economic Stewardship Historically Low."
Since 2001, Gallup has been looking to see whether Americans trust the president to do or recommend the right thing on the economy. Just 38 percent say they have "a great deal" or "a fair amount" of confidence in Biden, meaning he's only regarded better as the 34 percent who say so about President George W. Bush in 2008, when the country was in a recession.
Forty-six percent say so about Trump, which is a statistical tie when it comes to the 47 percent who said so about him in 2020, his last year in office. Even if he lacks a majority, this strong plurality is the highest for any person or persons included in the poll.
Just 39 percent say they have "a great deal" or "a fair amount" of confidence in Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, 38 percent say so about Democratic leaders in Congress, and 36 percent say so about Republican leaders in Congress.
The numbers for Trump are also better among Independents, by 45-34 percent, by a significant margin. As the write-up mentions, also later referring to how that could hurt Biden in November:
To a large degree, this reflects partisanship; Democrats are confident in Biden, Powell and Democratic congressional leaders, while Republicans are confident in Trump and Republican congressional leaders. Partisans have little to no confidence in the opposing party’s leaders. While political independents are not overly confident in any of the leaders, they have the most confidence in Trump.
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Biden's subpar rating could have significant electoral implications as not only does he have the lowest economic rating of any president seeking reelection since Gallup began tracking this in 2001, but independents trust his opponent more than him.
Even with that strong sense of partisanship, Trump still performs better with Republicans than Biden does with Democrats, the breakdown shows. For instance, 82 percent of Democrats say they have confidence in Biden, while 86 percent of Republicans say the same about Trump.
The number of confidence, however, is not so great for Republican leaders in Congress among fellow Republicans, though that's not exactly surprising. Eighty percent of Democrats say they have confidence in Democratic leaders in Congress, while just 67 percent of Republicans say so about Republican leaders in Congress.
This is similar to other polls showing Trump with a significant lead on who respondents trust more to handle the economy, with that lead often being in the double digits and at times his best issue or one of his best issues.
Then there's the related issue of inflation. It's not just that the Gallup poll and others mention inflation, which is another top issue for voters and one where Trump performs better than Biden. It's that it's a really bad issue for Biden, but that you wouldn't know it from how he and his administration handle it. RealClearPolling shows him with just a 34 percent approval rating on the issue, while 64 percent disapprove.
The write-up actually starts off by mentioning inflation, and addresses it later on as well:
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- With Americans less optimistic about the state of the U.S. economy than they have been in recent months and concern about inflation persisting, their confidence in President Joe Biden to recommend or do the right thing for the economy is among the lowest Gallup has measured for any president since 2001...
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...During the poll’s field period, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest Consumer Price Index data showing that inflation remains stubbornly elevated, though nowhere near the 40-year highs seen in 2022...
Inflation "remains stubbornly elevated," all right, with Spencer highlighting much of that in his piece from last Friday highlighting how "It's Been Another Terrible Week for 'Bidenomics.'" As he mentioned:
The last week of April saw a disaster of a Q1 GDP report in which inflation surged more than expected and economic growth slowed more than projected. By not-insignificant margins, economists' estimates were off and two of the three components of "stagflation" (high inflation, slow economic growth, and high unemployment) were on the radar...
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has often been tone deaf from the podium on the issue. Her comments at the podium from last May about prices being "down" received a Community Note. She, along with the Biden administration as a whole, also tried to gaslight the American people into thinking they were better off for last Thanksgiving.
More recently, Jean-Pierre hung up on a radio host in late March after a disastrous interview in which she was confronted about, among other topics, inflation. "Eggs, milk, seafood products, all the important groceries--those prices have gone down because of what this president has been able to do," she again claimed.
Just days before, Gallup also published a write-up noting how "Americans Continue to Name Inflation as Top Financial Problem." Not only do the continue to do so, but the number goes up. This year it's 41 percent who say "high cost of living/inflation" is their top financial problem, up from 35 percent in 2023 and 32 percent in 2022. "Before 2022, the highest percentage mentioning inflation was 18% in 2008," the write-up notes, making the 41 percent figure even more glaring. All subgroups also chose inflation the most. It's not even close how inflation is seen as the biggest problem, as the next highest problem is "Cost of owning/renting a home," which 14 percent selected.
Both write-ups dealt with a poll that was conducted April 1-22 with 1,001 adults and a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
This isn't the only recent bad news for Biden from Gallup. As Matt covered late last month, another Gallup poll showed Biden with just a 38.7 percent average job approval rating for the 13th quarter, making him the least popular president since the poll started with President Dwight D. Eisenhower.
If voters can get past whatever they might dislike about Trump, this race looks even more like his to win. Currently, he is ahead in the polls, with RealClearPolling showing him with a lead of +1.2 now over Biden.
It's May 1, 2024, and Biden is officially the worst president in modern history — according to the most recent Gallup poll.
— Nick Flor 🥋+🇺🇸 (@ProfessorF) May 1, 2024
And certainly the worst president in our lifetime for the things that matter: food, energy, rent, safety. pic.twitter.com/DgCET6Qi2p