Last week, Guy covered a poll from The New York Times/Siena College highlighting how President Joe Biden's margin from what it was in 2020 is down in bright blue New York. The Empire State and its 28 electoral votes will very likely not be in play, even though Republican gubernatorial nominee Lee Zeldin came as close as he did to beating Gov. Kathy Hochul in 2022, though Republican leadership could do New Yorkers some good. The last time a Republican presidential candidate won the state was Ronald Reagan in 1984. The same goes for California's 54 electoral votes. Gov. Gavin Newsom faced a recall in 2021 and looks to be facing another one, but this state will surely vote Democratic, as has been the case since 1992. Just as was also the case with New York, though, there's a poll highlighting how Biden's margins are down.
"California poll reveals how third-party candidates could throw 2024 presidential race to Trump," read a headline from the Los Angeles Times on Friday, speaking about a statewide poll they did with the UC Berkeley’s Institute of Government Studies.
The write-up is clear as to why California is not actually in play, including how it's "the nation’s largest Democratic stronghold." It also begins by focusing on Biden's historic win there against former and potentially future President Donald Trump in 2020, though it quickly gets into mentioning how the president isn't faring as well this time around:
In 2020, Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in California by more than 29 points, amassing a statewide margin of more than 5 million votes — the largest in the history of presidential elections.
Three years in office have not been kind to Biden.
Biden will win Tuesday’s primary — he has no serious opposition. And barring a sudden turn for the worse in his health, he’s not at risk of losing deeply Democratic California in November.
But he’ll be lucky to achieve half the margin he ran up last time around, according to the latest Los Angeles Times statewide poll with UC Berkeley’s Institute of Government Studies.
The poll of voters in California, the nation’s largest Democratic stronghold, highlights the problems the president faces nationwide as he seeks another four years in the White House.
As the headline suggests, third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein play a role in a decreased amount of support Biden is facing. Biden leads Trump by 18 points in a two-person race, though his lead drops to 12 points once other candidates are factored in. The effects go beyond California.
"In swing states, where Biden doesn’t have a big Democratic cushion to protect him, the impact of those independent and minor-party candidates could be enough to swing the outcome," the write-up mentions. That’s particularly significant at this point in the race, given that polls continue to consistently show Trump is leading in key swing states. Decision Desk HQ has also been categorizing those towards favoring Republicans.
Still, there is an impact to be mentioned in California, as well, as Poll Director Mark DiCamillo is mentioned discussing:
Those candidates, especially West and Stein, may have more impact in California than elsewhere in the country because of the state’s liberal electorate, noted Mark DiCamillo, the director of the Berkeley IGS poll.
The impact of those candidates could fade by November — that typically happens. They may not even make the ballot in some swing states. Each state sets its own rules for ballot access — some, including California, are easy, others are very difficult, and the deadline remains months away.
But the large number of voters who currently say they would vote for a third-party candidate is a “measure of the disaffection” with Biden, DiCamillo said.
Another takeaway is yet another narrative we've heard about and examined at the national level as well, which is that Biden is losing support from his fellow Democrats As the poll's write-up describes it so well, "Another central problem for Biden is the alienation of some key Democratic constituencies."
Just forty-five percent of California voters have a favorable view of Biden, with 26 percent of Democrats having an unfavorable view.
Latino and young voters are also described as "dismayed." What's particularly refreshing about the candidness of this write-up, when it comes to those young voters especially, is that there aren't excuses to be made when it comes to the supposedly strong support Biden has shown for Israel. That subscribing of blame has been an issue with other polls.
As the LA Times write-up notes, though:
That drop isn’t only — or even primarily — coming from voters on the left angered by Biden’s support of Israel in the current Gaza war. Biden’s support has dropped 24 points among voters who identify themselves as moderates, 15 points among those who call themselves somewhat liberal and 16 points among the strongly liberal.
Especially concerning to Democratic strategists, the percentage holding a favorable view of Biden has dropped 30 points over the past three years among voters younger than 30 and 20 points among Latino voters, only 43% of whom now see him favorably.
“The younger voters are a key segment in this election,” said DiCamillo. A 30-point decline “is huge,” DiCamillo said and underscores the concern among Democrats that many younger voters “may just decide not to vote.”
So again, we're not saying that New York and California are in play for Trump to earn their electoral votes, though it's that much more significant he's leading in key battleground states then. But, his decreased level of support in the bluest states in the nation add another complicated factor for the president when it comes to what's likely to be a rather close and competitive election come November.
Perhaps the most interesting takeaway is about the voters who dislike both Trump and Biden, which was the case for 2016 as well, when both Hillary Clinton and Trump were seen as unlikable, though Trump managed to pull off a shocking win. And, he can still win again, which is where another takeaway beyond California comes in, with the write-up citing a Marquette University poll from last week.
"Almost no one likes both candidates, either nationally or in California, and a majority of voters consistently say they’d rather not face this rematch," the poll's write-up points out. "But barring accident or illness that could befall either of the two elderly candidates, the rematch is what the country faces. Currently, Trump holds the edge. Biden can regain it, but as the California numbers show, he has a hill to climb."
It's not just the presidential election that is at stake, either.
"Even if that wouldn’t cause Biden to lose the state, Democrats further down the ballot fear that a lower turnout could lead to Democratic losses in closely fought swing congressional districts. California has at least four districts that both parties consider tossups, enough to potentially determine which party controls the House next year," the poll's write-up mentions after quoting DiCamillo about those who "may just decide not to vote."
For all of the thoughts about such factors, and the cautious optimism that Republicans might have, it's always worth involving a word of caution here. That's certainly in play here. "To the extent that the poll has good news for Biden it’s this: His standing with voters may have bottomed out. After rising consistently in polls over the last three years, the share who see him unfavorably, 49%, hasn’t changed from the last Los Angeles Times-Berkeley IGS poll in early January," the write-up mentioned.
We still have a little over nine months before election day is here, and everyone needs to make that time count.