As we approach the 2024 November election, the economy and inflation remain top issues. That's not a good sign for President Joe Biden, who insists he's running for reelection, especially as polls show former and potentially future President Donald Trump with a double-digit lead among voters who prefer he handles such key issues. Bidenomics may be failing with the American people, but that's not Biden's only problem area. Polls continue to show that immigration is playing a major part as well.
Last month, Leah covered how inflation was replaced by immigration as voters' top concern, reaching 35 percent in the Harvard CAPS-Harris poll. Thirty-two percent said the same about immigration. More recently, Cygnal released a poll showing that "inflation and the economy" are statistically tied with "illegal immigration" as voters' top priority, 27.1 percent and 25 percent, respectively.
The immigration issue takes up a considerable amount of the poll's takeaways, as well, including a note on how immigration has "spiked" in priority by more than 10 points since the December poll.
The poll also contained more in-depth questions on the immigration issue, including one where voters were asked to choose which statement they agreed with most. A strong plurality, 44.9 percent, said, "The United States needs to enforce its current immigration laws and should be allowed to deport those who enter illegally." The next most selected response was at 24.5 percent, "Immigration to the United States should be frozen until the crisis at the border is resolved."
Overall, just 9.5 percent of voters said, "The United States is a nation of immigrants and anyone who wants to come should be allowed to," while 16.3 percent said, "The United States should not stress about border security and deportations and should instead prioritize making a pathway to citizenship more attainable."
As lead pollster Chris Lane highlighted in his top five takeaways released last week, that 9.5 percent figure is almost double among Democratic respondents. Lane also pointed out with original emphasis, "18% of Democrats believe there should be no border at all, and 'anyone who wants to, should be able to enter the country.'"
The poll also touched upon immigration in a more nuanced manner by asking voters their view about how Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) is handling his "Border Standoff with the Feds." As Townhall has been covering at length, Abbott has stood strong in protecting his state and fellow Texans from illegal immigration even after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled last month that federal officials were allowed to remove barbed wire placed at the border.
The full question was worded as follows by Cygnal:
Texas Governor Greg Abbott is using the Texas National Guard and Texas Department of Public Safety to protect its border, inc luding using razor wire. The Supreme Court ruled with the Biden Administration to let U.S. Border Patrol cut the wire so illegal migrants can come into the country. Abbott says Texas has a constitutional right to defend itself from the invasion and the federal government can’t stop their efforts. Do you support or oppose Governor Abbott’s efforts to secure the Southern border with wire and other means?
According to the poll, 59.8 percent of voters support Abbott, while 32.1 percent oppose his efforts.
While top Texas Democrats, like former Rep. Beto O'Rourke – who is also a failed Senate, presidential, and gubernatorial candidate – may have condemned Abbott while totally misunderstanding the case, the poll's insights highlighted how even a significant portion of Democrats, 31 percent, support Abbott. The governor also has strong support from Independents, 62 percent.
When it comes to whether or not voters agree with detaining illegal immigrants at detention centers who are awaiting deportation, it's a move that 56.7 percent overall agree with, while 32.6 percent oppose. That even includes 37 percent of Democrats who support such a move, a demographic that has the lowest support for such a policy.
Beyond how immigration is statistically tied as the top priority, another major question ahead of the election is which party voters prefer. On immigration, it's not even close. A plurality of voters, 47.5 percent, say they trust the Republican Party more "to address our nation's border security," compared to the 32.2 percent who trust the Democratic Party and the 15.1 percent who trust neither.
A plurality of Independents, 42 percent, trust the Republican Party more. Further, Republicans are much more unified behind their party on this issue than Democrats. While 91 percent of Republicans trust their party more on handling border security, that number is at 68 percent for Democrats.
Lane also issued a statement included in the poll's press release:
“Illegal immigration can no longer be treated as a secondary or even a tertiary issue on the campaign trail,” said Pollster and Director of Client Strategy, Chris Lane. “Not only are voters bombarded with media coverage on the impacts of the border crisis, but they’re also experiencing it in their communities and that gives credence to the narrative that every town is a border town. This confluence works in the Republicans’ favor because 48% of voters now say they trust the Republican Party more to address our nation’s border security, including a 2:1 margin of Independents.”
“We also saw overwhelming support for governors like Greg Abbott in Texas who are taking more aggressive steps to combat the crisis in the wake of presidential inaction and the inability of Congress to provide additional resources,” said Lane. “This is why we see nearly 70% of voters supporting enforcement of current immigration law along with deportations and the freezing of new immigration until the crisis is resolved.”
Immigration being a top priority isn't the only takeaway that spells bad news for Biden and his reelection campaign when it comes to this poll.
Another takeaway from Lane highlighted, "The nation has fallen further into pessimism with 63% of voters saying the U.S. is on the wrong track. This is up 9 points from December. President Biden's perception (-14 net favorable) continues to worsen and remains very low with 45% of voters holding a 'very unfavorable' opinion."
Previous months have shown a close race with Biden and Trump statistically tied, with Biden enjoying slightly more support. Now, however, Trump is slightly ahead, with 47 percent support to Biden's 45.8 percent support. That lead comes as "Trump continues a three-month upward trend. 43% of Independents would vote for Trump, 41% for Biden, and 16% are Undecided," the poll's analysis points out.
Poll analysis also points to how "Donald Trump (-8 net fav) is 4 points more favorable with independents than Biden."
Further, when it comes to the segmentation analysis on what the poll notes is "three interesting groups," the 43 percent of respondents who make up the "GOP Base" are considered to be "voters [who] express higher election interest than the Democrat Base."
This Cygnal poll was conducted February 6-8 with 1,501 respondents and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.53 percentage points.
Not only is immigration an important issue for voters, but RealClearPolling currently shows Biden with just 32.2 percent support for his handling of the issue, while 63 percent disapprove, making it his worst one.
As Katie covered earlier on Monday, Biden is reportedly looking to issue an executive order on immigration. This could be because he's realizing how badly the issue reflects on him, but also so that he can blame Republicans.
In light of trying to negotiate a particularly problematic border bill, Biden and fellow Democrats have ramped up their blame toward Republicans, especially Trump. Biden has even repeatedly claimed that he needed Congress to act in order for him to enforce the law and properly secure the southern border, a move which Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has called him out for. On his first day in office, Biden signed an executive order terminating the emergency regarding the southern border and ending construction of the border wall.
Whatever efforts Biden has gone about doing to secure the southern border have come too little too late, and certainly with a political agenda.