All eyes are on the Pennsylvania Senate race between Democrat John Fetterman and Dr. Mehmet Oz, a Republican. In addition to the Internet squabbles and personal attacks, there's the polling to look at. Last week, polling from the Trafalgar Group showed that the race was closer than expected. Days later, Emerson confirmed the same. As a result, the race ratings are once more changing.
Pennsylvania's Senate race moved back into the "toss up" column over the last week. DDHQ's state polling average dropped from D+8.6 to D+4.9, with a couple of new polls showing a smaller margin of lead for Lt. Governor John Fetterman (D). Here's more: https://t.co/ALxLTNbbMc pic.twitter.com/hlVc3rfRJD
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) August 29, 2022
Decision Desk HQ has gone back and forth. On Monday, the forecaster moved the race back into the "Toss-Up" column.
Piece coming up from me about state of race in PA btwn John Fetterman and Dr. Oz. This is model from @DecisionDeskHQ. Compared to other “Toss-Up” Senate races especially, this race is all over the place and I imagine it could be for the weeks to come. Don’t write off Dr. Oz yet! pic.twitter.com/4NWP0QfaVJ
— Rebecca Downs (@RebeccaRoseGold) August 30, 2022
As one can see from the forecast model, this race has been all over the map. The Democrat high/Republican low for this race was between August 18-August 21, when Fetterman had a 68.5 percent chance of winning. That sharply dropped to 61.5 percent on August 22, and has teetered around there since, with the highest chance Fetterman has of winning since then being at 62.7 percent on August 27. As of August 30, Fetterman currently sits at a 62.3 percent chance of winning the race.
The most recent tweet from Decision Desk HQ explaining their race change also explains that Fetterman had seen a decrease in polling, which went from D + 8.6 to D + 4.5.
On July 22, Decision Desk HQ revealed they considered the race to be a "Toss-Up," and changed their forecast for race to favor Fetterman, as a "Lean Democrat" a month later, on August 22.
Since we last took a look at our model, Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate race moved out of the "Toss Up" category for the first time. Find out why here: https://t.co/f495cr1QCn pic.twitter.com/K5XDMzg0Og
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) August 22, 2022
What's changed? As has been mentioned, it's Fetterman's shrinking leads in the polls, which Dr. Oz can possibly make up in the coming weeks ahead. Fetterman has also experienced particularly inarticulate campaign events, after having a stroke shortly before he won his primary in May.
Kurt Schlichter has written numerous columns for Townhall predicting that Dr. Oz will win this race, and in many of them he points to commentary from Salena Zito, who is quite acquainted with Pennsylvania politics and this race. Zito has laid out how Dr. Oz, who does not appear to be bogged down by health issues, has been making numerous campaign stops throughout Pennsylvania.
Fetterman has found himself in the news quite a bit this week, especially when it comes to his rejecting an opportunity to appear alongside President Joe Biden, and for his racist comments that "poorer" people and "people pf color" supposedly are "less likely to have their ID."
When it comes to other forecasters, there appears to be a split. Cook Political Report still has the race as "Lean Democratic," a call made on August 18, while Sabato's Crystal Ball has it as "Toss-Up" and Inside Elections even considers it to be "Tilt Republican."
The Senate is currently 50-50, with Democrats only having control with Vice President Kamala Harris serving as the tie-breaking vote. While Republicans are favored to win back the House, the Senate is considered more of a toss-up, with this open Pennsylvania seat, currently being held by retiring Sen. Pat Toomey, a Republican, considered particularly key.