For now, it’s an outlier poll, but one was bound to appear: Emerson shows the Democrats with a double-digit lead in the generic poll. Democrats flipped the House in 2018, even though the polls showed a D+7-9 margin. That margin must stay below five points for the GOP to have a real shot. Still, as of now, the GOP is in a position where it could potentially hold the House majority.
Regardless, things are tight. A slight tweak in the political landscape could tilt the balance, and the president knows the stakes. It’s why he had a meeting with his top operatives, and it was not a moment too soon (via Axios):
The meeting at the Four Seasons hotel in D.C. is the second of what are becoming regular Trump team conclaves to coordinate the GOP, its candidates and his political operation. Trump won't be there, but these top MAGA shot-callers will be:
- Tony Fabrizio, Trump's longtime top pollster, who will give a presentation about the midterm picture.
- James Blair, Trump's hands-on political operations chief in charge of executing a midterm plan.
- Susie Wiles, White House chief of staff and Trump's longest-serving political adviser.
- Chris LaCivita, Trump's former campaign co-manager with Wiles.
- Joe Gruters, RNC chair under Trump and a longtime ally of Wiles.
- Cabinet officials (except Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who's in Manila on official business).
Zoom out: Republicans acknowledge it will be tough to maintain control of the U.S. House with Trump's poll numbers bottoming out amid rising gas prices and the war in Iran.
But Trump's political operatives say voters are wary of Democrats' progressive overreach, and they think this election will be about who Americans hate more, not who they love.
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There’s also a lot of Democratic bloodsports happening within their own ranks. Progressive factions are demanding accountability at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for interfering in primaries, there’s ongoing drama in Maine, and the socialist insurgency isn’t helping, especially as Democrats are practically broke at worst and unable to devote enough resources to defend quality Democrats against DSA challengers.
If Trump can finish this Iran business quickly, get gas prices to drop, and slightly improve his numbers, it’ll bode well. The other issue that could derail things is the looming spending fight: you know Democrats want a shutdown, and at the moment, the Senate’s slow walking, dithering, and abject incompetence could make that reality.
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