Former MSNBC political analyst Mark Halperin dropped another significant update on the 2024 race, which will not please Democrats. However, some can’t be shocked by this finding: the latest string of private polls is brutal for Kamala, and the 2024 race is essentially over—Trump will win. Let’s not get too overly excited. Democrats have been known to deploy funny tactics on Election Day, and we have a hell of a logistics issue regarding getting people’s votes in the hurricane-ravaged states of Georgia and North Carolina.
The latest surveys have Kamala at risk of losing six swing states. Halperin noted that the path for Kamala would be essentially closed if Wisconsin went to Trump. We already know it’s game over in Pennsylvania as well. Yet, in the Badger State, Harris is reportedly down three points, based on the internals from Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), whose re-election race just got downgraded to toss-up by Cook Political Report. That’s not where you want to be less than a month before Election Day (via Fox News):
"I just saw some new private polling that's very robust. Private polling," says @MarkHalperin. Kamala Harris "is in a lot of trouble … In the conversations I'm having with Trump people and Democrats with data, they are extremely bullish on Trump's chances in the last 48 hours.… pic.twitter.com/KF3tSM2sLo
— 2WAY (@2waytvapp) October 9, 2024
Reminder: @MarkHalperin was the first to report on Biden dropping out of the race; he called it 3 days in advance.
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) October 9, 2024
“For you Harris people on here complaining that we’re talking about problems in the Harris campaign, you’re welcome to put your head in the sand about it.” https://t.co/Ccq18xy6Ea
"In the conversations I'm having with Trump people and Democrats with data, they are extremely bullish on Trump's chances in the last 48 hours. Extremely bullish," Halperin said.
[…]
"Can you win a short campaign with an untested candidate? And what I’m telling you is happening in private polling is she’s got a problem now," he said.
He pointed to a recent New York Times poll showing that Harris is up over Trump by three points nationally. However, he noted this lead is just on the cusp of the poll’s margin of error and that her team would rather her be at +4 to be confident she’s winning.
Halperin then mentioned a Wall Street Journal report on internal polling done by Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s, D-Wis., re-election campaign showing that Harris is down by three points in Wisconsin.
"There’s no path without Wisconsin," he said, bringing up the numbers from Baldwin’s camp. He added, "We all said yesterday, Wisconsin and Michigan are looking worse for Harris than before."
[…]
…Halperin chastised his pro-Harris viewers, stating, "For you Harris people on here complaining that we’re talking about problems in the Harris campaign, you’re welcome to put your head in the sand about it. If you want to go watch MSNBC primetime and hear how great things are going for the Harris campaign, you’re welcome.
"But if you want to understand what’s actually happening, we’re here to tell you. I just saw some new private polling today, that’s very robust private polling, she’s in a lot of trouble."
Kamala is underperforming with most core Democratic voter groups, which should not surprise. There’s a reason why the base never liked her in 2020, prompting her unceremonious exit before the Iowa Caucuses. She’s not Trump—that’s all she has going for her. But as we’ve noted before and seen in past elections, being the “anti” candidate isn’t enough to win. Romney was anti-Obama and lost in 2012. John Kerry was the anti-Bush in 2004 and lost. Stay focused. Let’s win this thing.
Republicans "are quite confident" Trump will take Pennsylvania and enough Sunbelt states to win next month, analyst Mark Halperin said. https://t.co/HJByXN0jdY
— Newsweek (@Newsweek) October 8, 2024
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