Tonight’s debate is the election for both camps. The Waterloo moment is here. The race is virtually tied in the polls. There was no convention bump for Democrats; many are uneasy. You see it on social media, networks, and print. If the election were held today, Donald Trump would win. It’s the same result as it would have been before Democrats pushed Joe Biden off the political cliff. Meet the new boss, same the old boss—both getting beaten by the 45th president of the United States. It’s not a mystery. They all talk about Kamala’s higher ceiling, which is true, but you’ll never exploit that if you keep dodging the media like a scared little girl.
Second, Harris’ record is tied to Biden’s serial history of economic and foreign policy failure. Third, her agenda is absurdly left-wing and unelectable. No one trusts her, which is well since she has a laughable grasp of the issues: her plan to combat the inflation she caused at the grocery store is to enact Soviet-style price controls.
Harris has also received a slew of bad polls, which Nate Silver has cited to explain why Harris is projected to lose the 2024 election. In his latest projection, Trump has a 64 percent chance of clinching 270 electoral votes (via Silver Bulletin):
#Latest @NateSilver538 Forecast (9/9)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 9, 2024
🟥 Trump: 64.4% (new high)
🟦 Harris: 35.3%
——
Swing States: chance of winning
Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump 65-35%
Michigan - 🔴 Trump 55-45%
Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump 53-47%
Arizona - 🔴 Trump 77-23%
North Carolina - 🔴 Trump 76-24%
Georgia - 🔴… pic.twitter.com/Cw23W9WmSK
There’s no way to spin Trump leading in the Times/Sienna poll other than it being bad news for Kamala Harris.
— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) September 8, 2024
No crosstab truthing is going to change that.
Trump is polling better at this point in 2024 than either of the previous two elections, by a significant margin:
— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) September 9, 2024
Pew poll, September 2024
Trump: 49
Harris: 49
Pew poll, September 2020
Trump: 42
Biden: 52
Pew poll, September 2016
Trump: 39
Clinton: 46
We continue to see mediocre data for Kamala Harris, like a new Pew national poll with a very large sample size that showed the race tied nationally — which would probably translate to a loss for Harris in the Electoral College. Although the model’s convention bounce adjustment will get phased out as we see more post-Labor Day and post-debate data, things are going in the wrong direction for her even without the adjustment. Her lead in our national polling average is down to 2.3 points after having peaked at 4.3 points on Aug. 23.
The New York Times and recent Pew polls show the former president is on track to win. In the Pew survey, he’s polling better now than at any point during the 2016 and 2020 elections. And remember, the Trump vote is going to be underestimated again. In a recent segment about the race, CNN’s Harry Enten didn’t consider this, though I’m sure he knows it.
This is the closest presidential campaign 60+ years. The race has been consistently close in a way I've never seen. If the polling is off by a single point in the key swing states, the winner would flip.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 6, 2024
The bottom line is this election is up for grabs with 2 months to go. pic.twitter.com/vmZH3PIVxR
Real Clear Quick Take - Episode 11
— RealClearPolitics (@RCPolitics) September 5, 2024
In 2016 and 2020, pollsters underestimated Donald Trump's support in several key battleground states.
What might the race look like if this happens again?#RealClearQuickTake #Politics #Election2024 #Trump #Harris pic.twitter.com/jyUSBihqwW
He said if the election polls stand as they are now, Kamala would win, but added that if Trump outperforms his polling by a single point, he would win. He’s currently doing that—a one-point lead isn’t a win for Democrats, and they know it. ABC News’ Matthew Dowd tried to claim that the NYT polling leaned too Republican, which Nate Silver comically smacked down as a coping mechanism. He also rightly called out Dowd for his hackery, adding that if the NYT poll had Harris up five points, he’d be singing its praises.
This is just cope, the ABC News poll is from 2 weeks ago and the NYT poll is from the more highly-rated firm and has a larger sample. Of course you should look at NYT in the context of the *polling average* rather than solely looking at NYT, but ignoring it is poll denialism. https://t.co/4A5WfiHKZ5
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 9, 2024
There is 0 chance Matthew Dowd would be saying to ignore the NYT poll if it said Harris +5 instead of Trump +1, each of which is about equidistant from the current polling average.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 9, 2024
He also called out the media for their supposed lack of anti-Trump stories, noting that The Washington Post and others have covered Trump’s recent outbursts, but no one cares anymore.
Some of those stories don't click well because, believe it or not, the audience isn't interested only in stories that say Orange Man Bad, Don't Worry Harris Will Win or Liberals Are Right About Everything. But there are other outlets you can go to if that's what you want.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 9, 2024
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