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Tipsheet

Iowa Democrats Could Be Wiped Out in November

AP Photo/David Goldman

Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds must be pleased right now. Barring anything catastrophic occurring in the next few months, she’ll be cruising to re-election. Iowa Democrats should prepare for a funeral on Election Day because the most recent Des Moines Register poll paints a picture of abject slaughter. It’s the Battle of the Little Bighorn, but worse. It could be the political equivalent of The Great Marianas Turkey Shoot in the Hawkeye State. Reynolds is 17 points ahead of her Democratic challenger. Sen. Chuck Grassley is holding a solid eight-point lead. National Review’s Jim Geraghty also noted the potential “bloodbath” for Iowa Democrats, who face a total wipeout with these figures. He also added that Grassley’s age is a factor in the poll.

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It is the first time Grassley has polled below 50 percent since 1980 (via NRO):

The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa survey out this morning suggests that this November could be a wipeout for Iowa Democrats:

Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds leads Democratic challenger Deidre DeJear by 17 percentage points with less than four months until November’s election.

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll finds 48 percent of likely midterm voters support Reynolds versus 31 percent who support DeJear. Five percent support Libertarian Rick Stewart.

The same poll showed GOP senator Chuck Grassley ahead of Democrat Mike Franken by 8 percentage points. Technically, that would be Grassley’s most competitive election since 1980

[...]

It’s possible some Iowans are getting a little wary about another six-year term for the 88-year-old Grassley. But at 39 percent, Franken has a steep hill to climb.

Geraghty added that many viewed Iowa as part of the Obama realignment post-2008. It was a shift that supposedly was the precursor for the end of conservatism, remember? That was another liberal hypothesis that was wrong. Sure, Obama won the state again in 2012, but white working-class voters started to drift to the GOP after that. Once again, we see how critical white working-class voters were to the Obama coalition and the Democratic Party. Obama did well enough to form what could have been an unbeatable army made up of white working-class whites, nonwhite voters in the cities, young people, and unions. Thank God we have term limits. But this coalition is dead. Public opinion is shiftable, and nothing is permanent. Democrats thought they would hold the reins of power for years after 2008. That feeling lasted only two years; the Tea Party wave crashed into DC. The GOP thought they had a permanent majority based on national security issues after 2004. That too was shredded in 2006, a midterm killing field for Republicans.

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So, while I’m excited about the beating Democrats are about to take in the next few months, the GOP has to govern, craft legislation that can pass, and get things done. That includes investigating Hunter Biden, shutting down the January 6 committee, and booting the Squad from all their committee assignments.

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