We have over a dozen races that have yet to be called. Yes, some places are still counting those mail-in ballots. In some races, they still have a long way to go. Overall, this week has been terrible for House Democrats. They were projected to pick up 10-15 seats. They’re probably going to lose 10 maybe more. In New Jersey’s seventh congressional race which was called for Democratic incumbent Rep. Tom Malinowski, it’s far from over. In fact, some pollsters are saying that maybe the Associated Press called this too soon. Interesting things are happening there as Republican State Sen. Tom Kean Jr. is within striking distance of taking the lead. We’ll wait and see. In Utah’s fourth congressional race, it looks very much like Burgess Owens has unseated Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams. In California’s 39th district, Republican Young Kim appears booted incumbent Democratic Rep. Gil Cisneros.
12 FLIPS in the House for the GOP!— Students For Trump (@TrumpStudents) November 14, 2020
CA39 Young Kim
CA48 Michelle Steel
FL27 Maria Elvira Salazar
FL26 Carlos Gimenez
IA01 Ashley Hinson
MI03 Peter Meijer
MN07 Michelle Fischbach
NY11 Nicole Malliotakis
NM02 Yvette Herrell
OK05 Stephanie Bice
SC01 Nancy Mace
UT04 Burgess Owens
If Republicans win out in the House races where they currently lead, Nancy Pelosi will only be able to lose 3 votes on anything. She will currently only be able to lose a maximum 7 votes.— Ben Domenech (@bdomenech) November 13, 2020
In other words, get ready for more fawning media coverage of how Pelosi is funny, powerful, and very cool even as the House spins further out of her control.— Ben Domenech (@bdomenech) November 13, 2020
And Pelosi's margin for error continues to shrink as Utah 4 looks out of reach... https://t.co/hcWvRu5aOQ— Ben Domenech (@bdomenech) November 14, 2020
With the latest developments in uncalled races, looking increasingly like a 222 D - 213 R split in the House. Absolutely incredible outcome that none of the polling experts predicted where Nancy Pelosi can only afford to lose 4 votes on anything.— Ben Domenech (@bdomenech) November 14, 2020
Nancy Pelosi made the most consequential legislative decision of 2020. By negotiating in bad faith, never intending to pass a pre-election stimulus, she likely doomed President Trump. But she also straight up murdered her moderates, leading to this red wave.— Ben Domenech (@bdomenech) November 14, 2020
GOP women dominated. Congresswoman-elect Kim and Michelle Park Steel will be the first Korean American women elected to Congress. Pelosi will claim there’s a mandate. If Republicans hold the line in the Georgia runoffs and win the lion share of the remaining House races, it was quite a solid showing for the Republican Party down ticket. On the national level, President Trump is filing legal challenges after scores of voter fraud allegations have come to light. Yet, it does appear that in the national race, the president lost some support with white working-class voters. It wasn’t massive bleeding, but marginal changes in this demographic could spell electoral death. Keep fighting though, Mr. President. the allegations are serious, especially surrounding the illegal backdating of mail-in ballots. We’ll see what happens there.
Some Friday night news: Young Kim (R) ousts Rep Gil Cisneros (D) in #CA39, an Orange County-area seat that Hillary Clinton won by 9 points in 2016— Ally Mutnick (@allymutnick) November 14, 2020
This brings House Republicans to a net a gain of EIGHT seats and Kim is the 17th new GOP woman elected this cycle https://t.co/9mo2Rw8GZw
Some unexpected drama in #NJ07, where Tom Kean (R) has pulled within 9,708 votes of Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) and late-counted ballots have broken heavily R.— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 12, 2020
I still think it's probable Malinowski narrowly hangs on, but the AP may have called the race too soon. https://t.co/OILhLNmgja
In the past few hours, the Union, Morris and Somerset portions of #NJ07 have added 6,665 votes for Kean (R) and 4,331 for Malinowski (D), whittling Malinowski's lead to 6,275.— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 12, 2020
That's just above the pace Kean would need in the remaining ballots to win, but we'll see...
New: Morris and Union counties count 8,327 more #NJ07 votes...— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 13, 2020
Kean (R) 4,583 (55%)
Malinowski (D) 3,744 (45%)
This is slightly shy of the ~58% pace Kean would need to eventually overtake Malinowski's lead, which now stands at 4,327 votes.
Right now, Democrats' hopes of extending their House majority beyond 221 seats rest on uncounted ballots in the Kern Co. portion of #CA21, the Los Angeles Co. portion of #CA25, the Salt Lake Co. portion of #UT04 as well as #NJ07 and an #IA02 recount (47 vote margin).— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 13, 2020
Yet, back to the House, yes, I know House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) said Pelosi may not have the votes to remain speaker—and that the House GOP with what’s left of the moderate wing of the Democratic caucus could take the reins on some aspects of legislation. It sounds nice, but we’ve heard this before. Pelosi always makes her challenges run off like scared wombat. She also controls access to the war chest, which Democrats running will need in a midterm. Look, the drama is going to happen no matter what, as both the progressive and more level-headed wings of the Democratic Party are debating what the hell happened in the House races, but as of now, Pelosi is a strong favorite to remain in the speaker’s office. At the same time, this majority of hers has been whittled down to a nub. Ben Domenech of The Federalist noted that as of now, with a 221-213 Democratic-to-Republican split in the House, Pelosi can afford to lose only four votes on legislation. The House Democrats are, again, more liberal and unhinged overall. They shouldn’t go crazy with defund the police antics and the like, but they probably will. And these COVID relief packages will now become interesting as well. Do they take the original proposal offered by the Trump White House or not? There’s not much wiggle room to entertain the grocery list that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and her squad want to logroll into bills nowadays. Good luck, Nancy. You’re going to need a lot of Advil.