Tipsheet

Here's How Small the House Democratic Majority Will Be Next Year. Have That Advil Ready, Nancy

Matt Vespa
Matt Vespa  |  November 15, 2020 3:45 AM

We have over a dozen races that have yet to be called. Yes, some places are still counting those mail-in ballots. In some races, they still have a long way to go. Overall, this week has been terrible for House Democrats. They were projected to pick up 10-15 seats. They’re probably going to lose 10 maybe more. In New Jersey’s seventh congressional race which was called for Democratic incumbent Rep. Tom Malinowski, it’s far from over. In fact, some pollsters are saying that maybe the Associated Press called this too soon. Interesting things are happening there as Republican State Sen. Tom Kean Jr. is within striking distance of taking the lead. We’ll wait and see. In Utah’s fourth congressional race, it looks very much like Burgess Owens has unseated Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams. In California’s 39th district, Republican Young Kim appears booted incumbent Democratic Rep. Gil Cisneros. 

GOP women dominated. Congresswoman-elect Kim and Michelle Park Steel will be the first Korean American women elected to Congress. Pelosi will claim there’s a mandate. If Republicans hold the line in the Georgia runoffs and win the lion share of the remaining House races, it was quite a solid showing for the Republican Party down ticket. On the national level, President Trump is filing legal challenges after scores of voter fraud allegations have come to light. Yet, it does appear that in the national race, the president lost some support with white working-class voters. It wasn’t massive bleeding, but marginal changes in this demographic could spell electoral death. Keep fighting though, Mr. President. the allegations are serious, especially surrounding the illegal backdating of mail-in ballots. We’ll see what happens there. 

Yet, back to the House, yes, I know House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) said Pelosi may not have the votes to remain speaker—and that the House GOP with what’s left of the moderate wing of the Democratic caucus could take the reins on some aspects of legislation. It sounds nice, but we’ve heard this before. Pelosi always makes her challenges run off like scared wombat. She also controls access to the war chest, which Democrats running will need in a midterm. Look, the drama is going to happen no matter what, as both the progressive and more level-headed wings of the Democratic Party are debating what the hell happened in the House races, but as of now, Pelosi is a strong favorite to remain in the speaker’s office. At the same time, this majority of hers has been whittled down to a nub. Ben Domenech of The Federalist noted that as of now, with a 221-213 Democratic-to-Republican split in the House, Pelosi can afford to lose only four votes on legislation. The House Democrats are, again, more liberal and unhinged overall. They shouldn’t go crazy with defund the police antics and the like, but they probably will. And these COVID relief packages will now become interesting as well. Do they take the original proposal offered by the Trump White House or not? There’s not much wiggle room to entertain the grocery list that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and her squad want to logroll into bills nowadays. Good luck, Nancy. You’re going to need a lot of Advil.