In Florida, Democrats are in a panic. The situation has been described as one relating to surgery; they’re trying to stop the bleeding. Months of no ground game because of COVID and listening to inflated polling numbers might have been a monumental blunder for the Biden camp. Right now, the early vote advantage is less than 100k. It was more than 200k days ago—and Biden is not doing as well as he should in Miami-Dade, the state’s most populous Democratic county. It’s all about the margins. Even Hillary winning here by 26 points couldn’t stop Trump from taking the state, and Hillary actually could get Democrats excited. Biden is decidedly not in any of this cycle. Biden losing in Florida reduces his chances of winning the presidency below 50 percent, but losing in Pennsylvania is the ball game. A win in PA means that Trump will probably carry Ohio, Michigan, maybe Wisconsin, and possibly Minnesota. It’s possible.
Good news for Republicans in PA: In the home stretch, Republicans further narrow Dems' voter registration edge | Analysis | Pennsylvania Capital-Star https://t.co/yOPXkQyHFx— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 25, 2020
It’s funny how this state was for years the unicorn that Republicans could never catch. Until 2016, the last time the Keystone State went Republican was 1988. And now, it’s still in true battleground territory. We noted before how this state is still not a lock for Biden. He has an uphill battle and final shifts in the voter registration numbers also show the direction toward Trump. It’s not hard to figure out why. The state is chock-full of white older voters. Fracking is a huge issue, one that means life and death to scores of families. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have already staked their claim there by saying outright they will destroy this industry. Despite the Democratic side's declarations to the contrary, Pennsylvania voters know Biden-Harris is full of it and coming for their livelihoods. If Biden doesn’t do well in Lackawanna County, especially, expect a rough night for the Biden crew. The “late shift” is starting to make Democrats anxious here as well (via WaPo):
Joe Biden on Saturday prepared to mount a last-minute, two-day blitz of Pennsylvania, amid concern among some local Democrats about a potential late shift that would threaten his narrow advantage there and mirror President Trump’s 2016 comeback.
Most Democrats still believe Biden will capture Pennsylvania, and he maintains a modest polling lead there, but their confidence has eroded in recent weeks with emerging signs of a tightening contest in the state, according to elected officials, strategists and party activists. Both sides believe the outcome in Pennsylvania will be crucial in determining who wins the White House.
The causes of Democrats’ anxiety are varied. They worry about potential trouble with mail-in ballots during a pandemic. They are concerned about the prospect of a voter surge in White, rural areas favorable to Trump and signs of lower-than-anticipated turnout among the Democratic base.
“I am worried about Pennsylvania,” said Neil Oxman, a veteran Democratic strategist based in the state. Oxman cited several concerns, including the possibility that Trump’s base “will come out just a little bit stronger than our base.”
“The president has a very strong, sturdy base here, and what he's doing is juicing turnout in those small counties,” said Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D).
Also, the state’s Lt. Gov. John Fetterman acknowledged that Trump does excellent in small-town, rural Pennsylvania, which can cancel out the Democratic turnout seen in the Philly and Pittsburgh areas.
This is how Trump won in 2016—and he’ll probably do it again. Unlike Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008, Trump motivates and energizes these people here.