The Area Where Pollsters are Missing Trump's Invisible Edge over Biden

Posted: Oct 18, 2020 9:35 PM
The Area Where Pollsters are Missing Trump's Invisible Edge over Biden

Source: AP Photo/Evan Vucci

Donald Trump is not your typical candidate and the elections he’s involved in cannot be polled in the normal way. We all know this; that’s why his 2016 win was such an upset. Everyone assumed Hillary Clinton would win in a landslide until that narrative got punched in the mouth. As it was then, in 2020, there are shy Trump voters, sample sizes are off, and Joe Biden’s people admit they’re not up by double-digits in the polls. They could also be lying to ensure the Democratic base doesn’t fall into complacency. We’ll find out soon enough, but the surge in GOP voter registration in key states, like Pennsylvania, appears to be giving Trump an invisible edge that pollsters are missing (via Fox Business):

The 2020 presidential race may be closer than the polls suggest, according to an analysis of voter registration trends by JPMorgan Chase.

Changes in the number of voters registered to each of the major parties have proven to be a significant variable in election outcomes in the past, according to strategists at the New York-based bank, which analyzed trends in some of the battleground states that will be crucial to an electoral college victory.


In Pennsylvania, for example, a blue-leaning state that Trump won by 44,292 votes in 2016, the Republican Party has since picked up nearly 200,000 voters.

JPMorgan says the gains suggest Trump could win the state by a margin of more than 240,000 in the upcoming election.

Similar progress in battlegrounds Florida and North Carolina suggest Trump may take those states by a larger margin than in his first campaign as well.

JPMorgan also believes a surge in the number of registered Republicans will tighten the race in New Mexico, but that the state will still go with Biden. On the flipside, a growing number of registered Democrats in Arizona will make the state close, but Trump should prevail.

I’ve seen some weird things lately, folks. We have polls where college-educated voters make up the majority of the survey, Democrats are oversampled (again), and when these firms gather their Republican samples, they avoid rural GOP voters; suburban Republicans are hostile to Trump. Also, zip codes with Trump Democrats are bypassed as well.

There is data that there will be one million fewer young people voting this cycle, and the shy Trump voter is likely to be an urban black woman. That screws all the pro-Biden suppression polls being doled out by the fake news press. Trump has the edge on Biden regarding enthusiasm. Since 1988, the candidate who has had that edge has won the election. 

There is no middle here. It’s either I’m right and the fake news press is wrong and Trump is about to secure a second term, or I’m totally wrong, it’s a Biden landslide, and you’ll never hear from me again because I’d be drawn and quartered at a liberal kangaroo court somewhere in Northern Virginia. We’re less than a month away from Election Day. Guy will have a deeper dive into this tomorrow.

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