There are brutal reports coming out of Iowa that former Vice President Joe Biden is struggling mightily in precincts where he should have a shot at viability. The set-up of this contest can be rather rambunctious. People gather in their respective locations and pray that their candidate can clinch at least 15 percent to be declared viable to move into the next phase. David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report noted that it’s possible Biden won’t finish in the top three, a crushing blow to a candidate seen as a heavyweight in the Democratic Party and the person best suited to take on Donald Trump in November.
Widespread reports of Joe Biden barely/not viable in types of precincts he should be to have any type of chance. Having a hard time seeing him in top three...long way to go.— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) February 4, 2020
Biden is officially not viable they have 36 people. pic.twitter.com/1m2ORr05T2— Eliza Collins (@elizacollins1) February 4, 2020
NEW: Joe Biden plummets among younger voters, per preliminary entrance polls — with single-digit support among Iowa caucus-goers younger than 45. https://t.co/Gwnp8XZKVv— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) February 4, 2020
Joe Biden has the support of three people in Cedar Falls, IA. pic.twitter.com/FAK0yGGu0R— ???????? (@mooncult) February 4, 2020
The Des Moines Register pulled the release of their much-anticipated poll prior to the Iowa Caucus due to the campaign of former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg complaining about how the survey was conducted. The results of that poll were posted by FiveThirtyEight and others tonight showing Bernie Sanders in the lead. This is not a shock, as Sanders did well in Iowa in 2016. But Amy Klobuchar is doing decently in some areas, as is Pete Buttigieg. Project Mayhem is here for Democrats. Grab some popcorn.
Warren needs more precincts like this. Not a bad showing for Klobuchar (for Iowa City) either. https://t.co/GKkYdsyz3N— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) February 4, 2020
BUT are we seeing a "Biden implosion"
Reality check for those calling IA a “Biden implosion:” this caucus is totally unrepresentative of larger Dem primary electorate. Why?— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) February 4, 2020
1. It’s a caucus (unlike 90% of contests), rewarding passion on left
2. 90%+ white
3. Really young (21% under 35)
All of Biden’s worst things.
Still, the winner of this contest has determined the eventual nominee 70 percent of the time since 1976. The last Democrat to win Iowa, but not secure the nomination was former Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) in 1992.
UPDATE: Oh my...
The trick to beating Biden appears to be holding events after 8 PM. https://t.co/cYIqbGVIYC— Matt Whitlock (@mattdizwhitlock) February 4, 2020