PA Columnist Highlights Poll Democrats Are Probably Ignoring At Their Peril

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Posted: Nov 25, 2019 9:45 AM
PA Columnist Highlights Poll Democrats Are Probably Ignoring At Their Peril

Source: AP Photo/ Evan Vucci

They may not be featured on television a lot, but there are some Democrats who know Donald Trump can still win in 2020. It’s too early to take 2020 election polls seriously, the Trump approval polls aren’t reliable, and when the 2020 Democratic agenda is added into the mix—the picture is very different. Until 2016, Pennsylvania was a state that hadn’t gone Republican since 1988. The Philly suburbs and Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) have long held the strings statewide. Trump split with Hillary 49/49 in Bucks County, one of the key collar counties, which was enough to keep the wave of Democratic voters in Philadelphia from being able to clinch the state for Hillary Clinton. In the rural areas, it was a sea of red that, with a solid showing in Bucks, allowed the GOP to run up the score and win. Could it happen again? One Pennsylvania columnist John Baer, thinks so, adding that Democrats can once again blow this election, with the Keystone State being on the frontlines of yet another Democratic defeat. He did note the victories Democrats had in the 2019 elections. And he also said to throw those in the trash. This is not comparable—and he’s right. Love him or hate him, Trump’s agenda is broad-based: fewer taxes, regulations, more jobs, liberty, a strong defense, and putting the country first. Yes, there are added points to being a cheerleader for the country. 

It’s the direct opposite with Democrats, who are catering to the over-educated, snobby, hateful, and isolated liberal professional elite who are to the left of Lenin. Cater to only these folks, a minority, and that’s the ballgame. If Democrats lose Pennsylvania next year, it’s going to be a very short evening. Baer noted one poll Democrats are probably glossing over when it comes to PA politics. It’s that those who identify as liberal, those who would support Liz Warren’s unconstitutional wealth tax, is less than 25 percent of the voters in the Keystone State and that number has dropped almost double-digits from 2016 (via Penn Live):

Interesting poll findings in the six states most likely to decide the election.

Telling findings about Pennsylvanians in a new Franklin & Marshall College poll.

And a pragmatic warning to Democratic candidates by their de facto party head, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Her warning, occasioned by Elizabeth Warren’s surge and Joe Biden’s slippage in early primary states, is simple: don’t go left if you want to win.

[…]

Tucked inside the latest F&M poll is a question on ideology: do you consider yourself liberal, moderate or conservative?

Just 24 percent of state voters identified as liberal (40 percent moderate, 30 percent conservative), and that liberal number is down nine points since October 2016.

So, how would Warren or Sanders do here in a General Election?

“Voters will make that decision,” state Democratic Party chair Nancy Patton Mills tells me. “We are absolutely leaving the door open to all candidates… people want to turn Pennsylvania blue, and they will vote for the party nominee.”

Maybe. But Democratic consultant and former state Democratic Party chair T.J. Rooney says you win Pennsylvania "only with men and women acceptable to a broad swath of voters.”

He says Democrats should “heed” Pelosi, adding, “A lot of smart, politically patched-in folks think Trump’s defeat is a foregone conclusion. And it’s not.”

The Democrats’ health care agenda is one that will destroy private health insurance for over 100+ million Americans. Yeah, for a decade they’ve scared Americans into thinking the GOP health care plan would take away people’s health care when in fact, that call was coming from inside the House…from Democrats. This will screw over union families as well, who like many other American families, view health benefits as the Holy Grail and something that will most definitely influence how they vote. Trump got healthy union support in 2016. 

And while it's underreported, the Democratic Party’s hatred of fracking will be another sore spot with voters in Pennsylvania, especially Democrats from the western part of the state. If Democrats think they can retake the Rust Belt with some lefty who wants to increase their taxes, destroy their health benefits, and pass an economic agenda that will kill jobs—then, 2020 shouldn’t be hard for Trump to win. We’re all hearing about Biden in PA. His poll strength right now is due to name recognition, not his policies. Should he win the nomination, which isn’t a foregone conclusion either, his 2020 platform will be reeking of Leninism since he will have to veer left in order to clinch the required delegates. Not something you want to do if you want bag those swing states.