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What Do We Make of These Latest Battleground State Polls?

Boom: Trump Has A Number In Mind For His Middle Class Tax Cut

Well, for middle class Americans, more tax relief is coming to you from the Trump administration. The president teased at a new round of tax cuts over the weekend, saying he was working with Republican leaders to unveil at least an outline before November. Yesterday, he said that his administration was gunning for a 10 percent cut for middle-income earners (via Politico):


President Donald Trump said today that he will propose a new tax cut “of about 10 percent” for middle-class Americans.

“We’re giving a middle-income tax reduction of about 10 percent – we’re doing it now for middle-income people,” he told reporters. “This is not for business.”

“That’s on top of the tax decrease that we’ve already given,” he said.

Trump was vague on timing, saying “we’re putting in a resolution sometime in the next week or week and a half, two weeks,” but did not offer additional details. He said he would ask lawmakers to vote on it after the midterm elections.

“I’m going through Congress,” he said, adding that he would not try to cut taxes through an executive order, as he's been pushed to do on capital gains taxes. “We’ll do the vote after the election.”


House Republicans have tried to remind voters of their support for lower taxes, approving legislation shortly before they went home that would make permanent a bunch of individual tax cuts now slated to expire at the end of 2025.

Passing these cuts was never going to happen. There’s not enough time and certainly not enough courage on the Hill for anyone to stick their necks out on much so close to the election. The tax cuts might have been the GOP’s winning issue the entire cycle. Kimberley Strassel of The Wall Street Journal cited WPAi, a data firm, and their findings, showing that 40+ competitive districts have a R+3 advantage, that 25 percent of voters in these races are GOP persuadable, and that of those in the persuadable voter pool making the Trump tax cuts permanent is what’s key for them.


…The message that resonates most strongly by far with persuadable voters is a Republican promise that they will make permanent last year’s middle-class tax cuts. Rep. Kevin Brady, the Ways and Means Committee chairman, has introduced legislation to do just that—and it’s mind-boggling that Republicans haven’t already scheduled votes. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell doesn’t have 60 Senate supporters, but Republican candidates could use Democratic “no” positions to huge effect in their races.

Likewise, Republicans have an opportunity in highlighting the left’s more doolally ideas. Uncommitted voters reacted strongly against Democrats’ calls to abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and strongly in favor of GOP promises to defund “sanctuary” cities and states, which refuse to follow immigration law. These were top messages for those crucial suburban voters, who have watched in alarm as urban violence creeps into their neighborhoods. (Interestingly, the other top suburban message was repealing ObamaCare.)

As for the Republican base, the poll finds they are driven most by Democrats’ threats to the presidency, the economy and constitutional rights. They will be inspired by Republicans who promise to protect the Second Amendment. They are likewise stirred by promises to defend Mr. Trump from the partisan impeachment effort that would inevitably accompany Democratic House control. And they want to hear Republicans vow to guard against intrusive and specific Democratic job-killing proposals—a $15-an-hour minimum wage, regulations on autos and drinking straws, government health care, etc.  


WPAi is the firm that found a winning formula for Sen. Ron Johnson’s (R-WI) 2016 re-election campaign. At the time, he was locked in for a rematch with former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold. Johnson was worried, given the state’s leanings in national election, which at the time were compounded with Trump on the ticket. Johnson was going to need a good message and a lot of money. Well, he found a message and a pool of voters he could clinch a 50/46 win over Feingold—and Trump also carried the state. It was the first time a Republican had won Wisconsin since 1988. 

Is it too little too late? The GOP hasn’t been the best at selling the benefits of their economic agenda. It took a vicious Supreme Court fight to get the base jacked up. We’ll see if the Kavanaugh effect holds up, but the GOP should have been pushing for votes on new tax cuts months ago. At times, I think our side overestimates the threat. In Wisconsin, hordes of liberals and union workers flooded Madison to protest Gov. Scott Walker’s collective bargaining reforms in 2011. People thought he was finished. He was recalled and survived, garnering more votes than he earned in his initial 2010 gubernatorial election. Now, the Left has devolved into a full-blown mob. This is what you’ll be stopping by voting Republican—and if we manage to hang on in the House—the Senate is a Republican lock—then we can get this tax cut through and hopefully make the initial Trump tax cuts passed in December of 2017 permanent.    


These tax cuts, mind you, provided the foundation for four percent second quarter growth, the creation of three million jobs, a 3.7 unemployment rate, and the highest marks in confidence for consumers and small businesses in decades. Over three million workers have received bonus checks of $1,000 or more. U.S. worker pay has reached its highest levels in ten years. There’s been a lot of good news from this administration…unless you watch CNN.     

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