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Tipsheet

Clinton, Trump In A Dead Heat...In Missouri

Republican nominee Donald Trump may be making some pivots in his campaign, but have they come too late? Right now, Trump could be in trouble in very friendly GOP territory, with him neck-and-neck with Clinton in South Carolina. He’s also leading by one…in Missouri (via CNN):

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Donald Trump is leading Hillary Clinton by a single percentage point in Missouri, according to a Monmouth University poll released Tuesday.

The survey found that 44% of voters support Trump, while 43% back Clinton, well within the poll's margin of error of 4.9 percentage points. Another 8% of respondents told pollsters they intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson, 1% said they would write in another candidate,and the remaining 5% were undecided.

The poll is one of the first snapshot of voters in Missouri -- a state that has remained red during the past four presidential elections -- since the July conventions.

And here’s South Carolina:

Yet, there’s also reason to brush off this round of polling. For starters, the South Carolina poll was commissioned by the state Democratic Party. The Missouri poll only had a sample size of 401, far below the minimum of 600 people to get a more accurate gauge on a statewide race. At the same time, let’s not kid ourselves. While the founder of Current TV, Michael Rosenblum might disagree (he thinks Trump will win, polls be damned), Trump is losing right now—and set to lose big if something doesn’t happen soon. I’m guessing he feels he can lead a successful comeback in the upcoming debates. Also, don’t put too much stock in this rather bizarre notion that Trump is actually winning in the polls because of “undercover Trump voters.” A point that was made by the Republican nominee’s new campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway. It’s hard to put faith in a factor that cannot be proven. Moreover, it could be a rather embarrassing turn of events for those who actually put faith in this theory that there are hidden/silent blocs of voters that will vote for their candidate. Wendy Davis’ dumpster fire of a gubernatorial race, where she couldn’t even break 40 percent of the vote, was described as a rudderless clown show that placed faith on the notion that there was some silent liberal base, hence why her team thought it was fine that the die-hard abortion rights supporter could run like a normal liberal Democrat. As Guy noted, Trump may be putting more faith in the polls than relying on his silent legions of supporters since he’s campaigning in Texas and Mississippi. States no Republican should spend serious time in by the way, but that’s what you have to do when you fundraise.

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