Rudy Must Win Florida ... Or Else

Matt Lewis | January 28, 2008 1:55 PM

This won't surprise anyone, but Rudy Giuliani has to win Florida ...

... Trouble is, Rudy is currently in a distant third place in every major poll.

And unless Rudy wins Florida, polling indicates he will not even win his own home state of New York. That, of course, would be embarrassing. ... Which is why Rudy Giuliani will likely drop out of the race if he fails to win Florida tomorrow. And if Rudy drops out, I've got to think there is a decent chance he will endorse John McCain.

So what went wrong?

Looking at this RCP poll average, it is clear that Rudy's strategy of essentially conceding the early states was severely flawed. As you can see below, until the voting began, he was far ahead in Florida. However, he began losing support after New Hampshire (at the same time as Huckabee, Romney and McCain started improving down there). But it looks like it was right after Michigan -- around January 15 -- when Rudy finally surrendered first place (despite the fact that Rudy was in Florida at that time) ...

I also believe Giuliani missed a huge opportunty the other night at the MSNBC debate. This was his one shot to make a splash, but he essentially sat on his hands. Talk about a missed opportunity ...

I've gone on record as saying that Rudy Giuliani proposed the boldest and best tax plan of any Republican. Unfortunately for Rudy, his plan (which was released the day after Michigan) received little attention. The point is, everyone was focused on the action ... Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, South Carolina ...

Still, it's possible the polls are wrong. Maybe Rudy will pull off a miracle tomorrow. But if he doesn't, Rudy will look back at this election and wonder "what might have been ..."