McCain Well-Positioned for Super Tuesday

Matt Lewis
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Posted: Jan 28, 2008 11:32 AM


Democrats don't have winner-take-all primaries on Super Tuesday, but Republicans do -- and I think that's very good news for John McCain.  Here's why ...

Assuming Rudy Giuliani does not win Florida tomorrow, the winner-take-all "delegate rich" Republican primaries in New York (101), New Jersey (52), and Connecticut seem to favor John McCain.  (As Jon noted, he leads in the polls there).  Arizona (53), McCain's home state, is also winner-take-all contest ...

Assuming he's still in the reace, Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee will probably favor Mike Huckabee, thus depriving Mitt Romney of wins in those states.

Romney's money would be very important in California (173), were it a winner-take-all state.  However, the state will likely give delegates to several candidates.   Each of the state’s 53 congressional districts (including very liberal districts like San Francisco) are allotted three delegates.  A plurality in a district gives a candidate all three delegates.  Instead of Romney winning all the delegates, the Republican candidates will probably divvy them up.

Of course, tomorrow's Florida primary could completely scramble all this.  But it's interesting to consider, nonetheless ...