... But it also got me thinking about examining how often these rumors actually pan out. Normally, bloggers put together some sort of accounting of things at the end of the year. But I figured I'd do a quick summary now ...[# More #]
My February prediction that Alan Keyes was considering a run for president was accurate (though it ended up being pointless).
My Rudy rumors have been especially good. As far as I know, I was the first in the rightosphere to report on Rudy's controversial friend, Alan Placa (it has become a much bigger story since then). And I was ahead of the curve in reporting that Rudy Giuliani would speak at the FRC Value Voters conference. I was also first to speculate that Texas Governor Rick Perry might endorse Hizzoner, which he did at the Club for Growth conference a few weeks ago ...
Predictions and political sagacity are another thing. I believe I was one of the few conservative bloggers who wasn't swept up by Fred Thompson mania this spring. And when everyone was saying John McCain would be out of the race by Labor Day, I said he wouldn't.
My predictions for the Ames Iowa straw poll were mediocre (I did, at least, predict Romney would win), but I also don't know of another blogger who was willing (or stupid enough) to make any predictions about that ...
Not every thing I hear or speculate on comes true. Not by a long-shot. For example, while I was correct in reporting that conservative leaders were worried that Mukasey might get "Borked" (his confirmation was tougher than most expected), he was ultimately confirmed without too much fuss. And like a lot of other folks, I reported the rumor that Dr. Dobson was considering a Huckabee endorsement. That may, or may not, happen.
Like a lot of folks, I thought Bob Jones III and Paul Weyrich's endorsement of Mitt Romney meant that he had sealed-the-deal on social conservatives. Two days later Sam Brownback endorsed John McCain and Pat Robertson endorsed Rudy Giuliani ...
No prognosticator, regardless of the field, is right 100 percent of the time. Like most bloggers for sites like Townhall, I've done my best to accumulate trusted political sources. But like any reporter, there is always the danger of someone intentionally attempting to lead us astray. A source, for example, may be highly qualified and respected, but that doesn't mean he or she won't try to "spin" you or give you bogus information, meant to influece the outcome of events. In the heat of a campaign, these things happen, and it's important to be aware of that ...
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