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Tipsheet

Why I'm Skeptical of that NH Poll

MyManMitt writes:

So the latest poll out of New Hampshire shows Romney with his first significant lead over McCain and Rudy. Even John Podhoretz had to concede that Romney helped himself in the debate.

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Philip Klein of AmSpecBlog adds:

In a poll of New Hampshire Republicans, Mitt Romney has opened up a solid lead. This bolsters the view of Romney supporters who argue that once people get to know him more, and his money and organization work their magic, he'll win.

So why am I skeptical???

First, my sources in New Hampshire tell me that Romney is doing very well in New Hampshire -- especially in Rockingham County -- but that he does not have a third of the vote. Unlike Rudy (who has handlers and an entourage in states like New Hampshire and Iowa), Romney has done the Lincoln Day dinner circuit -- and is very accessible.  (Slightly off topic, Krusty Konservative reports that Tommy Thompson actually had more attendee's at a recent rally in Iowa than Rudy did!).

By the way, it certainly does not help Romney to create falsely high expectations in New Hampshire.  In fact, he should be knocking this story down (even if it is true).

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Second, Survey USA uses auto-dialing technology. Essentially, this means they are unable to do very who they are talking to (and if they are talking to undecided voters).

Romney did very well in the debate, but it was seen by a total of like 1.5 million people on MSNBC.  The idea that this one cable TV performance moved the numbers (to this degree) is wishful thinking.

Lastly -- and importantly -- it really inconsistent with the last 3 surveys conducted and released in New Hampshire. 

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