Turnin' 'Em Out

Mary Katharine Ham
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Posted: Nov 07, 2006 5:51 PM

Some turnout facts from the RNC:

NATIONAL

  • Of the precincts that the RNC is monitoring turnout, we have a ½% turnout advantage over the 2004 turnout (GOP precincts are turning out at 32.9% of 2004 vote while DEM precincts are turning out at 32.5% of 2004 vote)
  • Many states like Colorado, Nevada, Arizona have 25% of votes cast before election day.

Awww, did y'all get out that vote for me?

ARIZONA

  • There were 60K more ballots submitted by Republicans before Election Day – and 41% of the state has already voted.
  • In 2004 Exit Polling was off by 3.5% (they had it at 7%, actual results was 10.5%)

Why do Republican operatives keep mentioning Arizona? Was anyone really worried about Arizona?

CONNECTICUT

  • In the precincts that the RNC is tracking turnout, GOP precincts are turning out at 8% higher rate (42% to 34%) from the 2004 vote.

And, all the Republicans are voting Liebs!

FLORIDA

  • Republicans have a 140K advantage though absentee and early voting before Election Day – and 36% of the state has already voted.
  • Exit polling got it wrong in 2000 and wrong in 2004 (4% off in 2004)

An exit polling caveat. Does that mean things aren't going well?

MARYLAND:

  • Republican absentees had pulled within even of Democrats before Election Day – in a state with a 2:1 dem registration advantage.
  • Of the precincts we are tracking, Republican precincts are turning out 3% higher than Dem precincts off 2004 turnout (51-43).

Oooh, that sounds good, but then there's this.

MISSOURI

  • Of the precincts we are tracking, Republican precincts are turning out 2.6% higher than Dem precincts (42.3% to 39.7%) based off of the 2004 vote.
  • 2004 exit polls had a 3% dem bias.

Nice.

OHIO:

  • In 2004, exit polling was off by almost 9% (they had Kerry winning by almost 7%, we won by 2%)

I'm not sure any of that's gonna matter in Ohio, period.

TENNESSEE

  • (not much to say here…turnout looks against us, no exit polling from ’04 and absentee data is from MT data)
  • In precinct turnout tracking, dem precincts are turning out 1% higher off 2004 vote.
  • We estimate a 1% advantage on the absentee voting.

Hmmm. I think Corker's probably safe.

VIRGINIA:

  • In 2004, exit polling had the presidential within 1%, yet President Bush won by over 8%.
  • Of the precincts we are tracking, GOP precincts are turning out at 48% of 2004’s turnout while Dem precincts are only at 41%.

Wow, a 7 percent advantage in turnout? That sounds good. I can't tell you much about it, since I'm in Northern Virginia, which is crazy blue. But lines in my neighborhood weren't long, so take that for what it's worth.