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Another Poll Spells Bad News for Biden

AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta

The day after the presidential debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, a poll from YouGov showed that nearly half of Americans believe that the Democratic Party should replace President Joe Biden in the 2024 election. These numbers were unveiled hours after his disastrous debate performance, which Townhall covered.

In the survey, respondents were asked: “Who do you think the Democratic Party should nominate as its presidential candidate, if it wants to have the best chance of winning?” 

Only 30 percent of respondents said “Joe Biden.” Forty-nine percent said “someone else.” Twenty-two percent said “not sure.”

New numbers from Emerson College Polling show that Trump is leading Biden in a 2024 rematch, 46 percent to 43 percent. Eleven percent of voters are undecided. When undecided voters were asked which candidate they lean toward, 50 percent support Trump and 50 percent support Biden. 

“Since before the first presidential debate, former President Trump’s support remains at 46 percent, while President Biden’s support has decreased two percentage points,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Notable shifts away from Biden occurred among independent voters, who break for Trump 42 percent to 38 percent; last month they broke for Biden 43 percent to 41 percent.”

When third-party candidates are added to the mix, 44 percent of respondents said they support Trump, 40 Biden, and 6 percent support Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Voter motivation was also included in the survey. Republicans are more motivated than Democrats and independent voters (via Emerson College Polling):

Voter motivation varies by race, age and party: 

  • 78% of Republicans are extremely motivated, compared to 65% of Democrats and 63% of independents.

  • 79% of white voters are extremely motivated to vote in this year’s presidential election, compared to 53% of Black voters and 49% of Hispanic voters. 

  • Generally, as age increases, so does the percentage of voters who say they are extremely motivated to vote: 39% of people ages 18 to 29 are “extremely” motivated to vote, 49% of 30 to 39-year-olds, 72% of 40 to 49-year-olds, 76% of 50 to 59-year-olds, 91% of 60 to 69-year-olds, and 83% of people ages 70 and older.

In a potential Trump versus Vice President Kamala Harris matchup, 49 percent of voters support Trump while 43 percent of voters support Harris. This falls in line with results from a recent CNN poll about a Trump versus Harris matchup, which Townhall covered.

In a matchup between Trump and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), 48 percent support the former president while 40 percent support Newsom.

In a Hillary Clinton versus Trump rematch, Trump garners 48 percent support while Clinton garners 41 percent. 

A majority of voters, 56 percent, indicated that they think U.S. foreign policy is worse now than it was four years ago. 

“Perception of the status of U.S. foreign policy varies by party: 48% of Democrats think foreign policy is better now than four years ago, 87% of Republicans think it is worse, while 54% of independents think it is worse,” Kimball noted.

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