A New Round of Swing State Polling Is Out and Hoo Boy

Leah Barkoukis | October 10, 2024 11:00 AM

A new round of swing state polling with less than a month until Election Day shows a tight race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

The Republican presidential nominee is ahead of his Democratic opponent in Arizona, 49 percent to 47 percent, and in Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, 49 percent to 48 percent. The two candidates are tied with 49 percent support in Michigan and Wisconsin, and Harris is ahead of Trump in Nevada, 48 percent to 47 percent.

SWING STATE POLLS with @thehill

AZ: Trump 49%, Harris 47%
GA: Trump 49%, Harris 48%
MI: Harris 49%, Trump 49%
NC: Trump 49%, Harris 48%
NV: Harris 48%, Trump 47%
PA: Trump 49%, Harris 48%
WI: Trump 49%, Harris 49%https://t.co/tTBfBeMNpu
— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) October 10, 2024

Since the last round of Emerson/The Hill swing state polls three weeks ago, the race has shifted slightly: Harris lost a point in Arizona and North Carolina, gained a point in Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and her support did not move in Michigan and Nevada. Trump lost a point in Georgia and Nevada, gained a point in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, and did not move in Arizona or Wisconsin. (Emerson College Polling)

“Harris performs stronger than President Biden among Asian voters and young voters, but underperforms Biden’s 2020 support among independents and older voters,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement. “Trump has held at 49% for several months in Emerson surveys in Wisconsin, raising questions about whether he has hit a ceiling there. With just under four weeks to go, the race remains too close to call in key swing states, all within the margin of error.

“Voters in union households break for Harris by 10 points in Michigan (54% to 44%) and by 26 points in Wisconsin (62% to 36%),” Kimball added. “In Pennsylvania, they favor Trump 53% to 43%. Non-union households lean toward Trump in Michigan (50% to 48%) and Wisconsin (52% to 46%), but Harris leads slightly in Pennsylvania, 49% to 48%."