Cook Political Report announced Tuesday that it has shifted the Senate race in Wisconsin from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss Up” as polling begins to show a tightening race.
The change comes after its Swing State Project surveys from last week, which showed Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s 7-point lead from August falling to 2 points, 49 percent to 47 percent, against her GOP opponent, Eric Hovde. Private polling from both parties also supports that finding, making it clear the race is now “within the margin of error—and both Republicans and Democrats view other polls as outliers.”
The National Republican Senatorial Committee on Tuesday touted Cook Political Report’s ratings change in the race, coming days after an Axios report highlighted Democrats’ growing concerns in Wisconsin.
There is growing Democratic fear over how quickly the Wisconsin Senate race is tightening, with party insiders worried they could shockingly lose the critical contest, Axios has learned.
Why it matters: Sen. Tammy Baldwin's (D-Wis.) lead in both public and internal polls has deteriorated, and Republicans are flooding the state with cash to pull off the upset.
- Baldwin leads by just two points in internal Democratic polling, a source familiar with the campaign told Axios. That is much closer than what public polling has shown for months.
- Democrats are on pace to be outspent by Republicans in the state every week until Election Day, with an infusion of around $20 million from GOP sources.
The big picture: A Baldwin loss to Republican Eric Hovde would probably doom any chance Democrats have of holding on to their Senate majority. (Axios)
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“After 25 years in Washington, Tammy Baldwin has become the typical D.C. politician, voting in lock-step with the failed Biden agenda and hiding her Wall Street partner's stock trades from her constituents," said NRSC Spokesman Tate Mitchell in a statement. "Wisconsinites are ready for change, and Eric Hovde has the momentum.”
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