Tie Ballgame

Posted: Nov 04, 2012 11:38 AM
Two polls released overnight show that Mitt Romney and Barack Obama are running neck-and-neck in the national polls. As the two candidates run furious get-out-the-vote efforts between now and Tuesday, the race looks to be as tight as it's ever been.

The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll revealed the candidates to be tied with 48% support each among likely voters. What's more, self-identified independent voters split their support cleanly between the two candidates as well.

The final national NBC/WSJ poll, as well, showed a deadlocked race. The headline results were released overnight, with full results to be released at 6:30pm today, but the story is much the same: Obama 48%, Romney 47%. Poll results confirm that there are precious few undecided voters left after a long campaign slog, which is why the candidates have shifted from convincing undecideds to getting out the vote.

An overnight Columbus Dispatch poll contains encouraging news for Romney. While some polls have shown the Republican challenger significantly behind, the Dispatch reveals Obama favored by two percentage points. The Dispatch's take on the race: "Obama has edge, but high GOP turnout could turn Ohio to Romney."

Source: Columbus Dispatch

This race looks, by the national numbers, to be very, very close. Obama supporters can take solace in the prediction markets and some of the electoral forcasting numbers. Betting market Intrade - which typically gets more accurate the closer an election becomes - has President Obama with a 65% likelihood of winning a second term. Meanwhile, New York Times election forecasing wunderkind Nate Silver has pushed his projections for President Obama ever higher, and now says the model he's created has an 85% confidence in an Obama victory. Silver's confidence is placed mostly in state polling, as his projection for the national popular vote is within a mere two percentage points.

Source: FiveThirtyEight

It's close. And this is like that last two-tenths of a mile in a marathon - the campaigns are going all-out now.