The 2022 midterm elections are now (mostly) over, and the dust has settled over the country. While much has changed, more has stayed the same. When it comes to the crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border, there will be a sameness to it, but the political environment is slightly different when it comes to Congress and some border states.
The first major part is that now Republican members of the House will have the power to conduct investigations into the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Gone are the days of just sending strongly-worded letters. Everything from how DHS first reacted to the massive influx of illegal immigrants to what they did while investigating the Border Patrol agents who were falsely accused of whipping Haitians will hopefully be brought to light.
Now, of course, it's up to Republicans to decide what they will do once they have the information. While it looks like they will move to impeach DHS Secretary Mayorkas, and even if they do so successfully, it will die in the Senate as Republicans do not have a majority. So it's likely Mayorkas will stay as head of DHS for the time being.
Then again, even if Republicans had gained a majority in the Senate and were able to remove Mayorkas from office, it wouldn't matter much in the long term as President Joe Biden would replace him with someone who would carry out their open border policies. It brings to the forefront the main crux of the border crisis: the ongoing influx of illegal immigrants was caused by the Executive branch, not the Legislative branch.
One trick the House has up its sleeve is its power to control the budget. The big X factor in that equation would be if House Republicans would stand firm and let government funding lapse to force the Biden administration to undo the damage it has caused. It's high risk, high reward.
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With the border states, the one that will change the most will be Arizona. Kari Lake said she would declare an invasion and work to fill in gaps in the border wall. But she's not slated to enter the governor's office. Her Democratic opponent, Katie Hobbs, is taking the helm, and let's just say it's basically the opposite of what Lake planned on doing.
Hobbs has already said she would remove the shipping containers current-Republican Gov. Doug Ducey put in place in border wall gaps. While a stop-gap measure, the shipping containers have redirected illegal foot traffic that has helped Border Patrol better manage their manpower. I've been told by some Border Patrol sources in Arizona they are worried about what will happen should Hobbs move forward with her plan.
And that's the thing, Hobbs' "plan" to secure the border is sparse on details. Her campaign website bashes former President Donald Trump's approach to the border and says Congress needs to create a pathway to citizenship for DREAMers. Beyond that? Only that she will "use the tools at my disposal to bring resources to our border communities and provide meaningful relief for Arizonans suffering the consequences of decades of federal inaction."
There were deployments of Arizona's National Guardsmen and state troopers under Doug Ducey, but it remains to be seen if Hobbs will continue with those deployments.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) did declare an invasion at the southern border. While Texas National Guardsmen and state troopers will be charged with denying entry to illegal immigrants, they will return those who make it to the U.S. side back to the border but will not send them back to Mexico.
All of this is to say that the midterm effect on the border will shake a few things up, but this will be a major problem for the next two years.
