Electoral Tea Leaves

Posted: Sep 03, 2010 8:33 AM

Yesterday, Guy mentioned Larry Sabato's much-heralded electoral predictions, where Sabato estimated that at least 47 seats would fall into Republican hands. Mike Halperin came out with his predictions few days ago, saying that 60 seats were likely to turn red. Jim Geraghty thinks that 60 seats is far too low of an estimate.

Today, Charlie Cook said that a whopping 10 more House seats are in hotter water than they were last week. Among those races are Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick in AZ-1 and Gary Peters in MI-9, two freshmen Democrats who voted "yes" on health care and are now at risk of having their seat taken out from under them after two short years in Congress. Cook predicts at least 35 additional seats will turn Republican, but that's an estimate that doesn't include "toss up" races.