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Tipsheet

Iranian Supreme Leader Sidelined As Military Takes More Control

Iranian Supreme Leader Sidelined As Military Takes More Control
AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian, File

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been gradually taking over the government after U.S.-Israeli airstrikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other key members of the regime.

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This has sparked concerns that a peace deal will be harder to reach, according to Fox News:

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of the Iranian armed forces, has blocked President Masoud Pezeshkian’s presidential appointments and erected what sources described as a security cordon around Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, a report published Tuesday by Iran International said.

The IRGC effectively has assumed control over key state functions, the report claimed.

"It was always a matter of when, not if, the IRGC was going to step forward even more than it has in the last three decades," Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital.

Pezeshkian has reached a "complete political deadlock" as tensions between his administration and the military leadership deepen, according to the report.

The reported shift could have major consequences far beyond Iran. 

Analysts say a more powerful IRGC likely would mean a more confrontational Iran, less willing to compromise in talks with Washington and more inclined to continue military escalation across the region. With U.S.-Iran negotiations already faltering and uncertainty growing over whether Tehran will even send negotiators to the next round of talks, the rise of the Revolutionary Guard raises fresh doubts about who actually is making decisions in Iran and whether any civilian official can still speak for the regime.

"But it’s a mistake to assume this is some sort of coup," Ben Taleblu said. "This has been the process in Iran for years now, as the regime has chosen conflict over cooperation and emboldened its security forces at every juncture."

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Iran’s government has been in chaos since the bombing campaign began in late February. The IRGC has become the de facto government after it pushed Mojtaba Khamenei into the role of Supreme Leader after his father was killed. However, he has yet to make a public appearance and it is believed he was injured in the airstrikes.

In essence, Iran is looking less like a religious government and more like a military-run state now that IRGC controls major military decisions.

Three men are holding the real power in Iran. Each of them are tied to the IRGC and include Mohsen Rezaei, Ahmad Vahidi, and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Analysts and former insiders warn that the IRGC is threatening anyone who challenges its authority.

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Meanwhile, the fighting in Iran has been in a fragile temporary ceasefire amid President Donald Trump’s two-week extension to allow for negotiations. U.S. and Iranian officials are set to meet in Islamabad, Pakistan, this week to discuss a potential agreement.

Trump indicated that another extension is “highly unlikely,” but it is not clear what he will do when it expires. Before issuing the extension, he had threatened to escalate airstrikes and target energy facilities and bridges.

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