Unlike Florida’s Republican voters, who appear to favor Rep. Byron Donalds (FL-19) for the governor’s seat, Democrats haven’t quite decided who they wish to nominate.
This is one of a long list of problems Democrats have in the Sunshine State.
A Mason-Dixon poll shows former U.S. Representative David Jolly leading Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings 23 percent to 19 percent.
At first glance, this might sound like Jolly has a healthy lead over his opponent. But that’s not the case. The poll also showed that 58 percent of Democratic voters have still not made up their minds — even with the primary elections being seven months away.
Both candidates appear to share the same weakness: a lack of name recognition. The same poll showed only 19 percent of voters viewed Jolly favorably while 15 percent hold favorable views of Demings. Meanwhile, a whopping 55 percent of voters have never heard of Jolly and 60 percent have no idea who Demings is.
It’s nearly impossible to win an election if voters don’t even know who you are.
Jolly has been in the race since June 2025 and has amassed a significant war chest, compared to his opponent. Florida Politics reported that he raised $3 million total while Demings—who didn’t enter the race until November—has only $225,000.
On top of that, Jolly has been working hard to win voters. He held over 100 town hall events across the state.
But this doesn’t mean it’s time to count Demings out just yet. He has a massive advantage with black voters. His internal polling shows him leading Jolly 34 percent to 16 percent among black Americans, who make up a substantial portion of Florida’s Democratic primary electorate. If Demings manages to energize this voting block between now and August, he could eke out a win.
The two candidates differ on their policy priorities. Jolly’s top issue is dealing with Florida’s affordability and property insurance crisis. He has been advocating for investments in public education, teacher pay increases, and reforming the state’s utility regulations.
Jolly also wants to reverse many of current Gov. Ron DeSantis’ policies while restoring abortion rights. He has framed his candidacy as “change versus more of the same,” saying Republicans “have had their shot” and that new leadership is needed.
Demings is relying on his nearly four-decade tenure in law enforcement. He served as Orange County’s sheriff and police chief. His focus is on healthcare. He seeks to expand Medicaid to cover nearly one million uninsured Florida residents.
Demings has also vowed to lower utility costs by expanding renewable energy.
But even when Florida’s Democrats choose their nominee, the party will face an uphill battle against the Republican candidate. To say that this will be an uphill climb for Democrats would be like saying climbing Mt. Everest while naked is just a slight challenge.
Florida has not elected a Democratic governor since 1994, back when Ace of Base was still topping the Billboard charts.
Even further, Republicans have a voter registration advantage of over 1.4 million registered voters. This is more than ten percent of the entire state’s electorate.
The Tampa Bay Times noted that Donalds is the only candidate in either party whose name is recognized by a majority of his party’s voters. The fact that President Donald Trump endorsed him doesn’t hurt either.
Also, Donalds has raised $45 million, compared to Jolly’s $3 million.
For Democrats to win Florida in November, either Donalds will have to quit or God will have to become a Democrat.
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