Kamala Harris set out to run a vibes-based campaign, and the vibes appear to have shifted. Over the course of a few weeks, the Democratic nominee's national polling lead has evaporated, according to the RealClearPoltics average. Late Wednesday, the polling aggregator's founder described the overall trajectory this way: "17 days ago Harris had a 2.1% lead. She was at 48.9. [Donald] Trump was at 46.8. Today Harris is at....48.8. Trump is now at 48.6." In other words, she has stalled out, based on this average, while Trump has gained ground on her. This suggests that a sizable number of previously-undecided voters are breaking his way. More on that possible phenomenon in a moment. But first, here's the trend line mentioned above:
17 days ago Harris had a 2.1% lead. She was at 48.9.
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) October 24, 2024
Trump was at 46.8
Today Harris is at....48.8.
Trump is now at 48.6.https://t.co/N1E1kFfIHf pic.twitter.com/xZvdEY3fj6
As it happens, as of late yesterday, RCP's averages also showed Trump ahead -- albeit very narrowly, and well within the margin of error -- in every single battleground state. If the race is moving late, and moving in Trump's direction, it's likely because undecided voters have had their look at Kamala Harris and have decided she shouldn't be president. After the Democrats' famous, election-nullifying switcheroo, surrounded by enormous media hype and professions of "joy," Harris' long-standing job approval and favorability problems reversed themselves in short order. Suddenly, she was popular. She was riding the vibes. Months later, it looks like opinions of her have reverted into negative territory. Here's Gallup from this week:
With registered voters, Trump has a 52-48 positive favorable rating while Kamala is underwater 47-50. Her numbers match the NBC News poll from a couple of weeks ago. I doubt anyone had Trump having a positive rating going into the election while hers was negative. https://t.co/k7IKfBuKOj
— Varad Mehta (@varadmehta) October 23, 2024
And a key Wall Street Journal survey finding:
Perhaps more interesting than the new WSJ national poll’s head-to-head top line (Trump +2): pic.twitter.com/h6nKlNr8X0
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 24, 2024
That is a strikingly high approval number for Trump (+4), given his underwater posture for virtually his entire political career. And it's a very problematic gap (-12) for Harris, if it's even close to reflective of the electorate's current sentiments. Then there's this, via CNBC, on the top issue of the election:
“Voters say they will be better off financially if Trump wins by a 42% to 24% margin.” https://t.co/kXditbdXsF
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 24, 2024
As for the aforementioned undecided voters, I think they fall into multiple categories. They won't all gravitate the same way. I suspect quite a few won't vote at all. But within one demographic that the Harris campaign is aggressively courting in the election's home stretch -- Trump-negative and disaffected Republicans -- I have very anecdotal evidence that they're not only failing to make the sale, they're pushing some of these undecided into Trump's column:
~Totally anecdotal~ but I’ve had ongoing convos w/ a handful of very Trump-skeptical right-leaning friends who are undecided/agonizing about what to do this year. These messages account for 2 of 5 who’ve made this same decision in the last few days. One in NC, two in PA. FWIW: pic.twitter.com/1vNO4lmrob
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 24, 2024
I share these examples because they are people I know and respect and have similar views of the world & Trump as I do. These are the sorts of voters Dems are targeting with Liz Cheney et al. Purely anecdotally, they are breaking the other way. Because of who Kamala is.
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 24, 2024
Take all of that with a grain of salt, for what it's worth. But it just so happens that of the seven people referenced in those texts, two of them live in Pennsylvania, one lives in Wisconsin, one lives in Michigan, and one lives in North Carolina. It's entirely possible that Democrats will still win this election, thanks to a superior ground game, and/or because polls have over-corrected for previous errors. But the desperation moves over the last few days and weeks suggest that the Democrats are not feeling great about what's coming on November 5th. Let's see if voters fulfill those darkening fears. In case you missed it, I'll leave you with CNN's assessment of the town hall forum they hosted for Harris on Wednesday. Do the Democrats in these clips sound confident about what may be looming?
NEW: CNN’s Scott Jennings says Kamala Harris is a “double-threat” because she can’t think on her feet and can’t answer the expected questions.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 24, 2024
CNN has railed on Harris after her town hall event.
Here are the top reactions:
6. Axelrod: She is word salad city.
5. Jennings:… pic.twitter.com/Mdrr46uzbz
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