Tipsheet

The WSJ Polling Statistic That Might Worry Democrats the Most

Guy Benson
Guy Benson  |  October 25, 2024 12:01 PM

Kamala Harris set out to run a vibes-based campaign, and the vibes appear to have shifted.  Over the course of a few weeks, the Democratic nominee's national polling lead has evaporated, according to the RealClearPoltics average.  Late Wednesday, the polling aggregator's founder described the overall trajectory this way: "17 days ago Harris had a 2.1% lead. She was at 48.9. [Donald] Trump was at 46.8. Today Harris is at....48.8. Trump is now at 48.6."  In other words, she has stalled out, based on this average, while Trump has gained ground on her.  This suggests that a sizable number of previously-undecided voters are breaking his way.  More on that possible phenomenon in a moment.  But first, here's the trend line mentioned above:


As it happens, as of late yesterday, RCP's averages also showed Trump ahead -- albeit very narrowly, and well within the margin of error -- in every single battleground state.  If the race is moving late, and moving in Trump's direction, it's likely because undecided voters have had their look at Kamala Harris and have decided she shouldn't be president.  After the Democrats' famous, election-nullifying switcheroo, surrounded by enormous media hype and professions of "joy," Harris' long-standing job approval and favorability problems reversed themselves in short order.  Suddenly, she was popular.  She was riding the vibes.  Months later, it looks like opinions of her have reverted into negative territory.  Here's Gallup from this week:

And a key Wall Street Journal survey finding:


That is a strikingly high approval number for Trump (+4), given his underwater posture for virtually his entire political career. And it's a very problematic gap (-12) for Harris, if it's even close to reflective of the electorate's current sentiments.  Then there's this, via CNBC, on the top issue of the election:


As for the aforementioned undecided voters, I think they fall into multiple categories. They won't all gravitate the same way.  I suspect quite a few won't vote at all.  But within one demographic that the Harris campaign is aggressively courting in the election's home stretch -- Trump-negative and disaffected Republicans -- I have very anecdotal evidence that they're not only failing to make the sale, they're pushing some of these undecided into Trump's column:

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Take all of that with a grain of salt, for what it's worth.  But it just so happens that of the seven people referenced in those texts, two of them live in Pennsylvania, one lives in Wisconsin, one lives in Michigan, and one lives in North Carolina.  It's entirely possible that Democrats will still win this election, thanks to a superior ground game, and/or because polls have over-corrected for previous errors.  But the desperation moves over the last few days and weeks suggest that the Democrats are not feeling great about what's coming on November 5th.  Let's see if voters fulfill those darkening fears.  In case you missed it, I'll leave you with CNN's assessment of the town hall forum they hosted for Harris on Wednesday.  Do the Democrats in these clips sound confident about what may be looming?