In case you missed Sarah's post yesterday, a fresh nationwide survey from the New York Times and Siena College shows Donald Trump edging back out into the lead against Kamala Harris -- in both the head-to-head and wider field numbers. In the days immediately following Joe Biden being forced out of the race by his party, this pollster went into the field and found Trump ahead of Harris by one point among likely voters, 48 percent to 47 percent. In the intervening month-and-a-half, Harris was lavished with extraordinarily positive 'news' coverage, gaining momentum, and taking the lead. The press made her the new frontrunner. Six weeks later, the hype machine may be running out of steam. The same pollster went back into the field, just after Labor Day, and produced...identical top-line results to the late July numbers:
🇺🇲 National poll by NYT/Siena (#1)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 8, 2024
🟥 Trump: 48% [=]
🟦 Harris: 47% [=]
[+/- change vs 7/22-24]
——
Full ballot
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟦 Harris: 45%
🟪 Oliver: 2%
🟩 Stein: 1%
——
#1 (3.0/3.0) | 1,695 LV | 9/3-6 | ±2.8%https://t.co/1bZh4UAZix pic.twitter.com/NkdwbkmA1F
As you can see, the former president is up one point in the two-way race, and up two points in the multi-candidate field. Among registered voters, Trump's margin is two points in both data sets. We'll break down some of the 'trust on issues' findings below, but the two items that really stand out to me are the 'change' question, and the gender gap. On the latter, there is a yawning 28-point gap between male and female voters. The Vice President holds an 11-point lead with women, but the former president is up 17 points with men. Meanwhile, Democrats' efforts to recast the incumbent as the challenger, and the challenger and the incumbent, seem to have hit a 'reality check'-style snag:
You see why Obama tried to recast Harris as the change agent, but the NYT/Siena poll suggests voters don’t believe it.https://t.co/sp9Gq3mv3X pic.twitter.com/1JNUR4qBmH
— John McCormack (@McCormackJohn) September 8, 2024
A clear majority, 55 percent, say Harris represents "more of the same;" by a 27-point margin, voters say Trump represents change. More than six-in-ten voters say they want the next president to be a major change from Joe Biden, versus just 37 percent who say they want "minor" or no change. Harris is Biden's second-in-command. She has basically co-helmed his presidency, which is not a popular one:
In the new NYT poll, Biden’s job approval is 18 points underwater, 39/57.
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) September 8, 2024
Trump and Harris each have an identical favorability number (46 percent).
Trump's overwhelming focus in tomorrow's debate should be relentlessly tying Harris to Biden, underscoring how she represents the 'more of the same' unpopular failure. Trump is already universally defined, with only nine percent of voters saying they need to learn more about him. According to the poll, roughly three times as many voters (28 percent) say the same about her. This represents an opportunity for her, but also for him. Defining Harris negatively, and accurately, is Trump's top job. As for the issues, the top three are the economy, abortion, and immigration. Overall, Trump leads by five (50-45) on whatever issue people prioritize. Here are the trust breakdowns:
Thinking about the nation's economy, how would you rate economic conditions today?
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) September 8, 2024
Excellent 2%
Good 21 %
Fair 28%
Poor 49%
Excellent/good 23%
Fair/poor 77%
Trump could sabotage his momentum, or her downward trajectory, with an off-putting or counter-productive debate showing tomorrow night. Democrats also enjoy a crucial ballot operation and turnout machine advantage. In other words, Republicans and Trump supporters shouldn't be overconfident. That said, I'll leave you with this:
Recommended
#Latest @NateSilver538 Forecast (9/8)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 8, 2024
🟥 Trump: 63.8% (new high)
🟦 Harris: 36%
——
Swing States: chance of winning
Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump 64-36%
Michigan - 🔴 Trump 54-46%
Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump 53-47%
Arizona - 🔴 Trump 77-23%
North Carolina - 🔴 Trump 75-25%
Georgia - 🔴… pic.twitter.com/psf6phH98l
