As Madeline noted yesterday, a new Washington Post national poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by four percentage points, with her advantage among likely voters pushing to six points. Within a wider field, she's up three -- 47 to 44 percent. The poll was in the field between August 9-13, prior to some other data showing her losing some altitude and getting hit by even friendly press over her insane price controls pitch. Based on the last two presidential cycles, she is approaching the ballpark (in this poll, at least) in which Democrats might feel somewhat confident about winning the Electoral College. Hillary Clinton won the 'popular vote' by just over two points and lost the election. Four years later, Joe Biden carried the popular vote by 4.5 points, and won, though his margins in a handful of decisive states were razor thin.
For what it's worth, the Post/ABC pollster showed Biden leading Trump by 12 points nationally in October of 2020, a misfire of more than seven percentage points, compared to the actual margin. The same pollster gave Biden a 17-point lead in Wisconsin just a few days before Biden won it by less than a point. Do with that what you will. A key factor driving Harris' lead in their latest data set is an eight-point advantage among independents:
New national poll by WP/ABC/Ipsos
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 18, 2024
🔵 Harris: 49%
🔴 Trump: 45%
Independents: Harris 48-40%
---
Full field
🔵 Harris: 47%
🔴 Trump: 44%
🟡 RFK Jr: 5%
#17 (2.8/3.0) | 8/9-13 | 1,975 RV | ±2.5% https://t.co/Cek0jTJrn3 pic.twitter.com/ljdGD6LDfQ
By contrast, Fox's latest poll (in the field on nearly identical dates to WaPo/ABC), gives Trump a slim lead overall, boosted by an...eight point lead with independents:
This poll has Trump up 8 with independents, crossing 50%. If he can do that in November, he’ll likely win. https://t.co/iWdTi16JCt
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) August 15, 2024
That's a 16-point gap on a very key demographic which is hard to reconcile. So is WaPo showing Trump and Harris tied among men, whereas Trump leads by 12 with male voters in the Fox poll. I'll point out two red flags for Trump: First, in the Fox poll, his leads on the top two issues -- the economy and immigration -- have shrunk, compared to where they were against Biden. She cannot be allowed to unlink herself from her own administration, but so far, she's making some progress there. Second, even if WaPo's sample is off, Trump's favorables (-22) are in dead last place, by quite some margin, among the four major party presidential and vice presidential nominees. Harris has moved from clearly negative territory to about even. It's unclear whether Trump's favorables can move much, but it's important for hers to come back down to the neighborhood of where they were mired for years. As for top lines and cross tabs, splitting the difference is a new CBS survey (in the field more recently than Fox or WaPo/ABC), which gives Harris a two-point lead overall (full field), with battlegrounds tied. That poll shows Trump up by one point among independents, and up nine with men:
🇺🇲 2024 GE: CBS News/YouGov (with leans)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 18, 2024
🟦 Harris: 51% [+1]
🟥 Trump: 48% [-1]
Battlegrounds
🟦 Harris: 50% [=]
🟥 Trump: 50% [=]
—
Full field
🟦 Harris: 49% [=]
🟥 Trump: 47% [=]
🟨 RFK Jr: 2%
🟪 Other: 2%
[+/- change vs 8/2]
——
Battleground-state estimates...… pic.twitter.com/FF9yCLBjVj
I'll leave you with an RMG Research national survey (also more recent than Fox or WaPo/ABC) with Trump narrowly in the lead:
🇺🇲 2024 GE: @RMG_Research
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 16, 2024
🟥 Trump: 46%
🟦 Harris: 45%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
🟪 Other: 1%
---
With leans
🟥 Trump: 49% [=]
🟦 Harris: 47% [-2]
🟨 RFK Jr: 2%
🟪 Other: 1%
[+/- change vs 8/5-7]
—
#60 | 2,708 LV | August 12-14 | ±1.9%https://t.co/JqXEzvBgDU pic.twitter.com/2X6iWrHUBR
