Bucking decades of tradition, the first general election presidential debate of the 2024 cycle is this Thursday evening, well before either candidate on stage becomes his party's official nominee. This is just one more unusual aspect of a highly unusual political year, which will feature a president at the top of each major party ticket. Incumbents often stumble in the first debate of their re-election campaign; in relatively recent memory, Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush and Barack Obama have all fallen into this trap. Perhaps incumbents are inherently over-confident, are too accustomed to deference, or are too busy with other components of their demanding jobs to adequately and thoroughly prepare. Perhaps challengers take the setting more seriously, study and drill harder, and have been sharpened by primary season debates, while the men in the White House are out of practice.
Could this year be different? President Biden has been locked away in rest and prep mode for days, likely reflecting how much he and his team view his performance as crucial. Trump eschewed GOP debates in 2023 and 2024, running successfully as an inevitable frontrunner and quasi-incumbent. He therefore hasn't debated since the 2020 general election. Trump lost both of those debates to Biden, famously appearing completely out of control in the vital first match-up. He may have helped seal his electoral fate that evening. Given the widespread perception that Biden is incapable of effectively serving another term as president, in light of his advanced age and clear deterioration, the stakes of Thursday's forum are extremely high for his campaign. A major, viral "senior moment" could be devastating. Lethal, even. It makes perfect sense that Team Biden has prioritized lots of rest and preparation (and perhaps some sort of pharmaceutical intervention on game day) ahead of the big event.
Trump, however, should not be overconfident. As I mentioned, voters saw him as the loser of both debates against this same opponent four years ago. Republicans often over-estimate Trump's prowess as a debater (drawing laughs and applause with zingers in partisan settings isn't the same skill as winning over undecided voters who may be tuning in for the first time in a general election). They also foolishly tend to set expectations bar too low for Biden. The bar should be defending his disastrous first-term record, which has driven his approval rating into the high-30s or low-40s. The bar should also be convincing the 70-80 percent of voters who believe he's not physically or mentally up for the job that they're wrong. These are two Herculean tasks, of which he is likely incapable. But if the expectation is set that he will physically stumble, freeze up, drool, and either fall asleep or constantly descend into incoherent gibberish, that's a bar Biden has a good chance of clearing. He still might flop badly, but Trump shouldn't count on that -- nor should Republicans build that expectation. However Trump chooses to prepare -- and reports suggest that process has been, shall we say, rather informal -- here are a few suggestions I'd pass along if I were advising his campaign:
(1) Don't take the 2020 bait. There is a good chance that CNN and Biden himself will try to drag much of the discussion back to 2020 and 2021. Biden launched his re-election effort with an invocation of January 6th (the very first image of the announcement), and has placed heavy emphasis on the idea that democracy itself is on the ballot, with Democrats representing democracy. The top political anchor at ABC News, a former rapid response operative in the Clinton War Room, has already telegraphed that the 2020 election (and its aftermath) should be the very first subject of a 2024 debate. If CNN agrees with this assessment, and there will be huge pressure to aggressively explore this topic, Trump needs to be ready. In his mind, "ready" might involve complaining about the last election being "stolen" or "illegitimate," and serving up his usual blizzard of unproven claims, mixed in with fair gripes about rules being changed on the fly during the pandemic.
Trump's opponents love talking about 2020, and so does Trump. If the goal is to remind key voters of why they grew sick of Trump and gave him the boot four years ago, an acrimonious, backward-looking battle along these lines would probably be a good way to achieve that. If Trump can't help but fight on this question the way he normally does, that would likely play directly into his opponents' hands. Trump lost the 2020 election. His claims to the contrary did not even come close to holding up under scrutiny, especially in courts of law, and his related agitations fueled the flames that led to the national disgrace of January 6th. Trump being Trump, he will not admit either of these things. It's an entirely fair topic to raise with him. But it's not anywhere close to the top of voters' priorities. What Trump could do is to say something along these lines:
"Look, I think I won, okay? I think I won that election, and they changed a lot of rules because of the China virus, and mailed lots of ballots out in ways that were sketchy. And we would have been a lot better off if I were still president. Whatever you think about what happened four years ago, it's obvious that Joe Biden has been president for the last four years because only he could have turned the economy and the border and the world into such a disaster. CNN and Joe Biden want to keep talking about 2020. I think I did a hell of a job leading up to 2020, and we can get there again. But what the American people care about is what has happened since 2020, and what Joe Biden has done to this country, first of all -- and then, more importantly, what do we do to fix it after 2024. He can't fix it. He broke it. He can't do the job, we can all see that. We need to fix it, and I've already done it, and I can do it again. He can't. He's the problem. And his Vice President is even worse."
(2) A January 6th comparison. Again, I've made my thoughts on that awful day, and Trump's culpability, quite clear. Realistically, Trump is in a no-win situation of his own making, if and when this subject is raised. I think the best he can do is to salvage the subject by condemning the violence, and saying that violent protests shouldn't be what his supporters do. He could note that we've seen BLM riots and pro-Hamas hate rallies from Biden's base, and he didn't like seeing anything violent from people on his side. He might throw in a line about equal justice under the law, if he feels like he must portray some of the J6 participants as being unfairly treated. But calling them "political prisoners" and "hostages," and going on about pardons and the like would be music to Trump opponents' ears. What the former president should try to do on questions in this general realm is to pivot to the pressing concerns of real voters. One way he could do so in this case is to say what he remembers about January 2021:
- Inflation was at 1.4 percent.
- Gasoline cost $2.39 per gallon.
- America's Southern border was secure.
- Wars in Europe and the Middle East hadn't been launched."They want to talk about one awful day that January. But after Biden got sworn in, our prosperity and security went away -- fast. When we were in, people's finances were better, their dollars went farther, and their security was stronger. That was January 2021. Then he took over. Look at what's happened. We can't have it anymore. We need to get back to success for our great country. I can do it because I've already done it. He can't do it. We all know it. He even knows it."
(2a) Are you better off? Ronald Reagan famously deployed a line against Jimmy Carter in 1980 that helped bury the incumbent. “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” Reagan asked voters during a televised debate. The answer for a large majority of the electorate was 'no.' Reagan hammered away at this theme, and Carter lost 44 states. I'd suggest Trump pose a similar question, with a twist: Are you better off today than you were five years ago? The COVID pandemic from China was a 'black swan' event that caught the whole world off-guard. Between lockdowns, racial unrest, and violent rioting in the streets, 2020 represented a turbulent confluence of events for which no single person can be fairly blamed. It was an outlier year. Biden seized upon the resulting opportunity and promised a restoration of normalcy, unity, and moderation. He's delivered none of the above. Last time, he stood out of the spotlight and pointed at a polarizing incumbent as the obstacle to a national resurgence. He won on this message, but his governing results speak for themselves -- from Afghanistan, to the border, to the cost of living.
If COVID had never happened, I'm convinced Trump would have been re-elected. That's because in 2019, the country was in pretty good shape. The economy was booming. By asking people to remember how things were just before the pandemic, Trump would be setting a very favorable baseline for himself. Four years ago, Americans were locked down, schools had been shuttered, and major cities were on fire. A lot of those problems were attributable to "progressive" governors and mayors, but Trump was president. People wanted to turn the page, so they did. But the new chapter they selected has been decidedly unpleasant. Given the choice between Biden's America of 2024 and Trump's America of 2019, most people would pick the latter. Trump should tee up this election as a referendum on what Biden and his policies have wrought, and on the myriad positive outcomes Trump and his policies can achieve again.
(3) You don't have to love me. Trump savors the adulation of his base, of course, but he needs to win a lot of votes from people who aren't big fans of his. It may go against his nature (wish-casting that he comport himself in a somewhat disciplined manner may also fall into this category), but leaning into a little bit of self-awareness can go a long way. This applies both to the debate and his coming acceptance speech in Milwaukee:
"He can't do this job. He never could, and he especially can't know. He's been very bad already, and we all understand that we can't have four more years of Joe Biden and very possibly Kamala Harris. We just can't. I'm not perfect -- many would disagree -- but I'm willing to admit I'm not perfect, okay? I'm not promising perfection, but I'm promising a hell of a lot better than what we've gotten under him. This isn't a hypothetical or empty promise. I've already done it, and we can do it again. You don't have to love me. I love being loved, but you don't need to love me. You don't even need to really *like* me that much, although I wish you would. But if you know that you were better off, the country was in better shape, and the world was less dangerous when I was president, let's move on from Joe Biden. He can't do it. I have, I can, and I will. I'm asking for your vote."
(4) "Convicted Felon." This is another area that threatens to derail any messaging goals that Trump may have heading into the debate. He has strong feelings about the New York travesty, and so do I. He blames Joe Biden and his party for a political persecution, and he's got a point -- including about Biden's role. Trump has every right, and even an obligation, to defend himself. Voters will receive a heavy dose of "convicted felon" attack ads for the next four months, and Trump needs to speak to those voters on a major stage like this. But as tempted as he may be, and as justified as he may feel, getting deep into the grievance weeds would be a mistake. Most people didn't follow the trial on anything approaching a granular level. He can be forceful, but to the point -- and then move on:
"The DA is a left-wing Democrat who campaigned on prosecuting me. One of his assistants on the case worked for Joe Biden, then left the Justice Department just to prosecute me. The judge donated to Joe Biden. Let me say that again: The judge in charge of the whole trial donated to Joe Biden, which was against the ethics rules, but he did it anyway. And the judge's daughter has raised millions for Democrats off the trial. Many legal experts, including some that don't like Trump very much, say this was a sham. Even Andrew Cuomo said the case wouldn't have been brought if it weren't against Trump. It's never been done before. It's a disgrace, and the experts agree it was a disgrace. It's going to get overruled on appeal, and everyone knows that. But that won't happen before the election. They did this case to call me a felon before the election, and they don't care that it will get thrown out on appeal. That's why Joe Biden and his party did this. Because they can't defend their record, so they're going to say, "criminal, criminal, criminal" because they think you're stupid and it will distract from their failures that hurt YOU. They're coming after me and hurting me -- but I can handle that. Joe Biden has failed YOU, and we need to get him out. And you're not stupid. A recent poll showed nearly 60 percent of Americans think the charges were politically-motivated, and I'm leading in almost every swing state. We need to win. For the country."
(5) On abortion: In addition to "democracy" and "convicted felon," it's a sure bet that there will be an exchange or two about this issue, on which the media and the Democrats are on the same, radical page. Trump's abortion position is actually quite moderate, unlike Biden's. Democrats and their press allies are going to endlessly note that Trump has taken credit for SCOTUS overturning Roe v. Wade. That was a huge, long-sought victory for the pro-life movement, to be sure. It also did not result in a national abortion ban, which Trump does not support. It allows the states to set policies on this issue, which Senator Joe Biden actually voted for, per the New York Times. Senator Biden supported letting states take back power on abortion policy after Roe, and the Supreme Court finally got around to agreeing with Joe Biden's previous position:
With an anti-abortion president, Ronald Reagan, in power and Republicans controlling the Senate for the first time in decades, social conservatives pushed for a constitutional amendment to allow individual states to overturn Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court ruling that had made abortion legal nationwide several years earlier. The amendment — which the National Abortion Rights Action League called “the most devastating attack yet on abortion rights” — cleared a key hurdle in the Senate Judiciary Committee in March 1982. Support came not only from Republicans but from a 39-year-old, second-term Democrat: Joseph R. Biden Jr. “I’m probably a victim, or a product, however you want to phrase it, of my background,” Mr. Biden, a Roman Catholic, said at the time. The decision, he said, was “the single most difficult vote I’ve cast as a U.S. senator.”
He later flip-flopped on this exact same issue, which is what he's always done. Biden went from being a moderate who favored state sovereignty on the issue, and who opposed taxpayer funding of abortion, to supporting abortion-on-demand for any reason, with no restrictions, for all nine months of pregnancy -- all funded by taxpayers. That's the literal bill that he supported, which is wildly unpopular. Like on everything else, Biden has been captured by the hardcore left of his party. National Democrats now will not name a single common-sense abortion limitation they would be willing to support. Trump could even challenge Biden to name one. Sweeping abortion bans are unpopular. So is the official position of the Democratic Party. Trump can help neutralize what polls have shown is a Biden advantage by pointing out Biden's previous support for overturning Roe, and his recent, extreme embrace of a 'no limitations' stance. Trump's position is much closer to where average voters actually are on this difficult issue than Biden's is. Trump can explain his middle-of-the-road position (perhaps applauding state-level European-style compromises such as heavy restrictions after the first trimester), while accurately pointing out Biden's hypocrisy and extremism.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member