On Monday, I wrote an analysis of some of the very earliest polling to emerge since Donald Trump's conviction by a New York City jury. My overall assessment was that the numbers were mixed, and that it was too early to really draw any serious conclusions. I wrote the following, which I still believe is true: "Until we have a few weeks' worth of high-quality polling at the national and state levels, and we can see the impact on polling averages after May 31, fixating on any of these polls is likely not a terribly fruitful exercise. But from what we've seen in the data above, this is so far looking like an overall shrug from voters." We are now more than a week removed from the trial outcome, and some high-quality national and state-level polling is trickling in.
It's still premature to draw any definitive conclusions, and post-debate polling later this month will probably give us a clearer picture of where the race stands. But if I were a Biden supporter, I'd be worried about Emerson's fresh national poll, Fox's batch of state-level surveys, and some new data from the New York Times. Note well that all of these numbers are from polling conducted after Trump's conviction:
📊 NATIONAL POLL: @EmersonPolling
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 6, 2024
🟥 Trump: 46% [=]
🟦 Biden: 45% [+1]
With leans
🟥 Trump: 50% [=]
🟦 Biden: 50% [=]
—
🟥 Trump: 44% [=]
🟦 Biden: 38% [-1]
🟨 RFK Jr: 8% [=]
🟨 West: 1%
🟩 Stein: 1%
⬜ Undecided: 9%
—
Generic Ballot
🟥 Republicans: 45% [=]
🟦 Democrats: 43%… pic.twitter.com/qQRF5yIF4a
Trump is up one point, head-to-head, as opposed to up two points in May. With leaners pushed, it's an exact tie, unchanged from last month. When the ballot is expanded to include other options, Trump leads Biden by six points, a single point stronger than last month. Republicans have a two-point generic ballot lead, improved by one net point over the previous survey in this series. Biden's approval rating is precisely unchanged, while his disapproval ticked up by one point. Taken together, these numbers practically scream 'statistical noise.' There is no meaningful difference in Emerson's pre-verdict and post-verdict polls, and in some very minor ways, the picture is a tiny bit darker for the incumbent. Meanwhile, in mid-May, the New York Times sent a ripple of angst throughout Democratic politics by publishing battleground state polling that generally looked rather alarming for Biden. Here is an interesting follow-up:
NYT/Siena reached nearly 2,000 people who participated in previous Times/Siena polls to see if any had changed their minds*
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 5, 2024
🟥 Trump: 47% [-1]
🟦 Biden: 46% [+1]
[+/- change vs April - May]
•*In Six Battleground states + National
• 538: #1 (3.0/3.0) | 1,893 RV | 6/3-4… pic.twitter.com/ElaxyeKy4t
This is close to an apples-to-apples comparison, and the movement toward Biden among these swing state voters is...quite modest, and certainly within the margin of error. And Trump still leads within this cohort. Which brings us to the new batch of Fox News state-level data. Again, this is cannot be received as heartening news inside Biden HQ:
Brand new polling in key swing states.
— Shannon Bream (@ShannonBream) June 6, 2024
Florida - Trump +4
Arizona - Trump +5
Nevada - Trump +5
Virginia - even
Deep dive into the numbers and also how voters think Trump/Biden do on specific issues: https://t.co/HhKxKiT41X
Somehow, the best news here for Biden is in Florida, where he "only" trails by four points, with Trump at 50 percent. Given the direction of Florida's politics in recent years, this top line number may underestimate Trump's likely margin there. The RealClearPolitics average has Trump up eight in Florida, for what it's worth, including this new data point. Here's a slightly different look at results from the same polls:
New FOX polling of battlegrounds -- with expanded ballots including third-party candidates:
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) June 7, 2024
AZ: Trump +5
FL: Trump +7
NV: Trump +5
VA: Biden +1
Trump's lead margin gains 3 points in FL, margins are unchanged in AZ & NV, and Biden ticks up by a point in VA.
In all four states, governors (three of four are Republicans) all enjoy majority support and vastly out-perform Biden's approval rating. Glenn Youngkin's approval rating, for instance, is 30 full points better than Biden's in Virginia. Multiple polls now show the Old Dominion tied or extremely close. For now, at least, yes, Virginia appears to be in play. Finally, in case you missed it, Quinnipiac is out with a new survey showing Trump leading Biden by five points in Georgia. An observation:
New Quinnipiac poll shows Trump +5 in GA--in line w/ RCP avg, but noteworthy because (a) it's a slight improvement for Trump compared to a few pre-verdict polls there & (b) Q-polls have been WILDLY inaccurate in recent cycles. For example, this was ~6 points off in 2020 pic.twitter.com/OopZzgKhkp
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) June 7, 2024
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