Tipsheet

So Far, Post-Trump Conviction Polling Offers Some Worrying Early Tea Leaves...for Joe Biden

Guy Benson
Guy Benson  |  June 07, 2024 12:01 PM

On Monday, I wrote an analysis of some of the very earliest polling to emerge since Donald Trump's conviction by a New York City jury.  My overall assessment was that the numbers were mixed, and that it was too early to really draw any serious conclusions.  I wrote the following, which I still believe is true: "Until we have a few weeks' worth of high-quality polling at the national and state levels, and we can see the impact on polling averages after May 31, fixating on any of these polls is likely not a terribly fruitful exercise. But from what we've seen in the data above, this is so far  looking like an overall shrug from voters."  We are now more than a week removed from the trial outcome, and some high-quality national and state-level polling is trickling in.  

It's still premature to draw any definitive conclusions, and post-debate polling later this month will probably give us a clearer picture of where the race stands.  But if I were a Biden supporter, I'd be worried about Emerson's fresh national poll, Fox's batch of state-level surveys, and some new data from the New York Times.  Note well that all of these numbers are from polling conducted after Trump's conviction:


Trump is up one point, head-to-head, as opposed to up two points in May.  With leaners pushed, it's an exact tie, unchanged from last month.  When the ballot is expanded to include other options, Trump leads Biden by six points, a single point stronger than last month.  Republicans have a two-point generic ballot lead, improved by one net point over the previous survey in this series. Biden's approval rating is precisely unchanged, while his disapproval ticked up by one point.  Taken together, these numbers practically scream 'statistical noise.'  There is no meaningful difference in Emerson's pre-verdict and post-verdict polls, and in some very minor ways, the picture is a tiny bit darker for the incumbent.  Meanwhile, in mid-May, the New York Times sent a ripple of angst throughout Democratic politics by publishing battleground state polling that generally looked rather alarming for Biden.  Here is an interesting follow-up:


This is close to an apples-to-apples comparison, and the movement toward Biden among these swing state voters is...quite modest, and certainly within the margin of error.  And Trump still leads within this cohort.  Which brings us to the new batch of Fox News state-level data.  Again, this is cannot be received as heartening news inside Biden HQ:


Somehow, the best news here for Biden is in Florida, where he "only" trails by four points, with Trump at 50 percent.  Given the direction of Florida's politics in recent years, this top line number may underestimate Trump's likely margin there.  The RealClearPolitics average has Trump up eight in Florida, for what it's worth, including this new data point.  Here's a slightly different look at results from the same polls:

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In all four states, governors (three of four are Republicans) all enjoy majority support and vastly out-perform Biden's approval rating.  Glenn Youngkin's approval rating, for instance, is 30 full points better than Biden's in Virginia.  Multiple polls now show the Old Dominion tied or extremely close.  For now, at least, yes, Virginia appears to be in play.  Finally, in case you missed it, Quinnipiac is out with a new survey showing Trump leading Biden by five points in Georgia.  An observation: