Two New Polls of a Critical Swing State Show the Same Candidate Leading...

I don't think it's overstating matters to say that if Joe Biden loses Pennsylvania in November, his road to victory within the electoral college will be narrow-to-nonexistent. Donald Trump could lose the Keystone State and cobble together a few plausible paths 270, though claiming that prize could guarantee his victory. In 2016, Trump carried Pennsylvania over Hillary Clinton by less than one percentage point. Four years later, Biden eked out a close win by just over one percentage point. Another very close contest is expected. As Rebecca covered earlier in the week, a fresh survey of this crucial battleground -- commissioned by the left-leaning advocacy group AARP -- found the 45th president leading the 46th president in their looming rematch by four points, head-to-head. Within a wider field, the margin expands slightly to five points:

📊 PENNSYLVANIA POLL: @AARPPA

President
🟥 Trump 49%
🟦 Biden 45%
—
🟥 Trump 46%
🟦 Biden 41%
🟩 Stein 5%
🟪 Oliver 3%
—
Senate
🟦 Casey (inc) 48%
🟥 McCormick 44%
—
Attorney General
🟥 Sunday 44%
🟦 DePasquale 43%
—
Generic Ballot
🟥 GOP 47%
🟦 DEM 45%
—
Job Approval… pic.twitter.com/pRj98suDq5
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 7, 2024

Trump is up 10 points among independents here. The survey also shows the GOP ahead slightly in the state's 'generic ballot,' though incumbent Senator Bob Casey, a Biden rubber-stamp Democrat, maintains a modest lead over Republican challenger Dave McCormick. This poll's top-line results are strikingly similar to another Keystone State data set published this week by Muhlenberg College:

📊 Pennsylvania GE: @muhlenberg_poll

President
🟥 Trump 44% [+3]
🟦 Biden 41% [-1]
—
🟦 Biden 35%
🟥 Trump 35%
🟨 RFK Jr 18%
—
Senate
🟦 Casey (inc) 45%
🟥 McCormick 41%
—
Generic Ballot
🟦 DEM 45%
🟥 GOP 44%
—
President Biden
🟢 Approve 35% [+1]
🔴 Disapprove 57% [+4]… pic.twitter.com/apWholYWJc
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 7, 2024

Trump has a three point lead against Biden in a straight-up matchup, but when Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is added to the mix as an independent, the two major party nominees are tied. In the AARP poll, RFK wasn't included. This suggests that the prominent third-party candidate's presence may benefit Biden in Pennsylvania, if he can get on the ballot. In other states (see below, for instance), RFK appears to boost Trump. To hammer away at the electoral dynamic I can't stop writing and talking about, this latter survey found the former president ahead by two points among those who say they are "definitely voting" this year. Among those who are "not likely" to vote, Trump's lead is 11 points. All the numbers show that there's a sizable reservoir of would-be Trump supporters who are either unreliable voters, or who aren't yet registered to vote. How many of them do or do not participate in the election could be the difference between a Trump win and a bigger Trump win -- or they could be the deciding factor between a Trump win and a Trump loss.

The Democrats and the Biden campaign are deadly serious about their ballot-chasing turnout operation. Republicans and Team Trump seem to be lagging considerably behind in this imperative-to-decisive realm. Meanwhile, Quinnipiac has released a new poll in the swing state of Wisconsin, which looks like good news for the incumbent:

📊 WISCONSIN GE: @QuinnipiacPoll

🟦 Biden 50% (+6)
🟥 Trump 44%
.
🟦 Biden 40% (+1)
🟥 Trump 39%
🟨 RFK Jr 12%
🟩 Stein 4%
🟨 West 1%
—
Senate
🟦 Baldwin 54%(+12)
🟥 Hovde 42%
—
538: #19 (2.8/3.0) | 5/2-6 | 1,457 RVhttps://t.co/ctVSmH96OI pic.twitter.com/J94SLFnKRj
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 8, 2024

This survey shows a six-point Biden lead collapsing down to a neck-and-neck virtual tie when RFK and others are included on the ballot, indicating that unlike in Pennsylvania, Trump may be rooting for the independent candidate with a famous last name to gain ballot access. Then again, I take all Quinnipiac numbers with a chunk of salt because that pollster has been, to be quite frank, horrendous for multiple cycles -- especially, but not exclusively, at the state level. To wit:

Dems seem excited about the new Q-poll showing Biden up 6 in Wisconsin & maybe they have good reason to be. Or maybe it's more scalding hot garbage from state-level Quinnipiac polls. An Oct 2020 flashback (13 points off in FL, 12 points off in PA, 13 points off in IA): pic.twitter.com/qA5QryDLvn
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) May 9, 2024

Yikes. I'll leave you with a reality that the Trump campaign also needs to take seriously, as expounded upon by Marc Thiessen: