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Who's Ahead? New Barrage of 2024 Polling Sheds Light on Presidential, Senate Races

Guy Benson
Guy Benson | April 19, 2024 10:01 AM
Who's Ahead? New Barrage of 2024 Polling Sheds Light on Presidential, Senate Races
AP Photo/Alex Brandon

Let's conclude a week packed full of polling analyses with...another batch of polls, shall we?  We've seen national numbers showing a very tight race, swing state numbers giving Trump an edge, and under-the-hood data indicating that Team Trump should prioritize identifying and turning out low-propensity voters -- among whom he has a sizable lead.  Also crucial is executing a major voter registration push, as Trump's advantage is even greater within this group, per multiple survey results.  Democrats are fretting about this for good reason, but their fears won't materialize if Republicans don't do their jobs properly.  

Here are some fresher results, starting with a few nationwide surveys pointing to a highly competitive contest:


A range of Trump up three (and up four within a broader field) to Biden up three (or just one in a wider field). In that final embedded survey, Biden's vote share barely budges if Trump is convicted "of a serious crime," but Trump's vote share would tumble into the 30's.  The presence of RFK, Jr. in the race appears to ever so slightly benefit Trump, though he seems to be pulling voters from both 'sides.'  In a race that will likely be determined at the margins, amid very small shifts, his presence on the ballot could be decisive.  The Kennedy family is showing up en masse for anxious Democrats for a reason, as their family member's campaign claims ballot access in a crucial battleground state:

A broad coalition of the Kennedy family will endorse President Biden on Thursday at a campaign rally in Philadelphia, pointedly rejecting one of their own in Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the independent candidate who many Democrats believe poses a significant threat to Mr. Biden’s re-election chances. Among the relatives of Mr. Kennedy expected to back Mr. Biden are his siblings Joseph, Kerry, Rory, Kathleen, Maxwell and Christopher. The Biden campaign released a list of 15 Kennedys set to appear at the rally, but it said other family members would endorse the president as well. 


Speaking of Michigan, here's one new poll out of that critical state:


In this data set, RFK eats into Trump's margin a bit. What about nearby, and equally important, Wisconsin?  Very, very close -- as usual:


A strikingly competitive Senate race in the Badger State, per the 'gold standard' Marquette poll. A few extra polling notes before you go: For now, TEXAS is looking safe for Trump, with Ted Cruz (who will face an avalanche of spending against him) in a closer race, but still ahead.  FLORIDA appears redder than it was in 2020 (including for Rick Scott who's comfortably ahead in the Senate battle), but less red than 2022.  Another poll in ARIZONA has Trump up mid-single-digits (in line with the approximate average), but Kari Lake trailing in the Senate race.  NORTH CAROLINA also appears to be leaning Trump's way (by 6) in a fresh Mason-Dixon poll.  In another Senate-related nugget, out of deep blue Maryland, where moderate Republican Larry Hogan maintains double-digit leads (+13 and +18, respectively) over both potential Democratic opponents:

I'll leave you with a quartet of new Fox battleground polls, which are all basically in line with the RCP averages, including my analysis of the data on Special Report:


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